politicalbetting.com

Since 1988, the Republicans have won the Presidential popular vote only once, in 2004. Popular opinion is that the recent Republican Electoral College advantage is somehow immutable. It is not. Indeed, 2024 could see Trump win the popular vote, and Biden the Presidency. Simply: Trump has gained share in States which are either Democratic strongholds (New York and California) or in places where he already has the delegates (Florida and the Deep South). By contrast, Trump and the Republicans have…

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How much better would a different leader be doing ? These latest numbers from YouGov are very much in the line with what we have been seeing from other pollsters. It is now hard to see how the PM could turn it round. The Tories are stuck with someone who is an electoral liability and looks set to lead the party to a whopping defeat. At the moment there does not appear to be much appetite in the Tory party…

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I fear they’re going to be disappointed We are now barely 15 months from the maximum time that this parliament can last and I think we’re going to see a lot more polling questions like the above on whether people want an early vote. The only problem with this is that I cannot see Sunak wanting to go to the country early when he’s not assured of a victory. It might be that if the polling changed and the Tories…

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TSE

I believe in the maxim that oppositions do not win elections but governments lose elections and this government has done more than most governments to lose the next election and expectation we are on course for a 1997 style result but I have my doubts. My primary doubt is because of the position Jeremy Corbyn bequeathed Sir Keir Starmer. Starmer started on 202 MPs and even before boundary changes Starmer has to make a net gain of 124 seats to…

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Back in February talk emerged about Liz Truss making a comeback and looking to regain the Tory leadership, I still have my doubts on such a comeback and this polling just reinforces my view given as just 7% think her premiership went well which is the same number of Brits also say they have seen a UFO. I know parties do stupid things in opposition (see the leaderships of Iain Duncan Smith and Jeremy Corbyn as most infamous examples) but…

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Speculation has already started about whether the Tories have a chance of regaining power in London. One thing that looks set to make the Tory task a lot easier are the electoral charges that Boris Johnson made when he was PM. Essentially Boris scrapped the old supplementary vote system to First Pass the Post. Under the old system candidates of the left would hope to benefit from the second platforms choices of Lib Dem, Greens and others at that end…

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