The LAB lead is getting narrower

The LAB lead is getting narrower

As we have seen on previous threads many Tory supporters are getting a little bit of the confidence back with the latest R&W Paul having the deficit down to just 15%. The same trend has been seen with other firms and we are getting a bit closer to the point where a LAB majority might just be in the balance. One thing is looking pretty clear and that the days of Labour leads of 20% plus are no longer there…

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The 2024 White House Race – the latest betting

The 2024 White House Race – the latest betting

Thanks to the Smarkets betting exchange for their latest betting prices on the November 2024 White Race. As can be seen the betting money is going on a Trump-Biden rematch with the Democrat getting re-elected. My view is that Trump is such a divisive character and faces so many challenges at the moment that he might fail to get the nomination. Much of the polling at his stage is less about voting intention and more about name recognition. I think…

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What are the chances of Trump NOT being the GOP nominee?

What are the chances of Trump NOT being the GOP nominee?

The latest betting exchange odds on Trump being the WH2024 GOP nominee rate Trump as about a 70% chance. To me this sounds to be on the high side given the mounting criminal indictments he is facing and a new factor highlighted in the YouTube video linked to above. This is because someone who did what he did on January 6th 2021 cannot in good faith take the oath of office if he did get re-elected. The MSNBC video goes…

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Is Nicola Sturgeon an agent of MI5?

Is Nicola Sturgeon an agent of MI5?

Yes, the headline is a shameless attempt to enter the QTWTAIN hall of fame/shame but it does raise an interesting point. MI5 are the best intelligence agency in the world, they have form for infiltrating organisations who wish break up and destroy the United Kingdom, famously with the IRA and prior to that the world changing Double-Cross system in World War II when every German agent in the UK was turned, so it would be no surprise if MI5 infiltrated…

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Where’s Willy?

Where’s Willy?

England’s senior teams qualifying for football world cup finals are rarer than a decent Radiohead album or Boris Johnson telling the truth so the Lionesses reaching today’s world cup final is a pretty special occasion which is why the country wants Prince William to be there in Sydney this morning. The royals have erred in not sending somebody to Australia, you know the royals have screwed up badly when even the pro-monarchy Daily Mail criticises Prince William’s failure to attend….

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A great resource for all who follow UK politics

A great resource for all who follow UK politics

The link to the above from the Commons library is well worth saving because of the mass of information that is available about every single Commons constituency with the new boundaries. It is well-ordered and the more you become familiar with what is available the better. Thanks to David Cowling for the link. Mike Smithson

The only lesson.

The only lesson.

7 murdered babies. Attempts to murder 7 more. A hospital’s reputation in ruins. (Oh – and another inquiry to report on all the lessons to be learnt. Like the ones not learnt from previous inquiries. Just as these ones won’t be.) It is not too cynical to say that care for the hospital’s reputation – rather than investigating serious concerns about staff responsible for babies in their care – was almost certainly one of the main reasons why senior NHS…

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What would be happening if Corbyn was still LAB leader

What would be happening if Corbyn was still LAB leader

This polling is, of course, completely hypothetical but it does show the ongoing problem that Starmer’s predecessor had. By the time of GE2019 he was a huge negative for Labour. An Opinium on the day poll in December 2019 found that the overwhelming reason why former GE2017 LAB voters had switched was because of Corbyn – NOT because of Boris Johnson. My problem with the poll is what it is asking of those sampled. Whatever it is interesting nevertheless. Mike…

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