I believe in the maxim that oppositions do not win elections but governments lose elections and this government has done more than most governments to lose the next election and expectation we are on course for a 1997 style result but I have my doubts. My primary doubt is because of the position Jeremy Corbyn bequeathed Sir Keir Starmer. Starmer started on 202 MPs and even before boundary changes Starmer has to make a net gain of 124 seats to…
Back in February talk emerged about Liz Truss making a comeback and looking to regain the Tory leadership, I still have my doubts on such a comeback and this polling just reinforces my view given as just 7% think her premiership went well which is the same number of Brits also say they have seen a UFO. I know parties do stupid things in opposition (see the leaderships of Iain Duncan Smith and Jeremy Corbyn as most infamous examples) but…
Speculation has already started about whether the Tories have a chance of regaining power in London. One thing that looks set to make the Tory task a lot easier are the electoral charges that Boris Johnson made when he was PM. Essentially Boris scrapped the old supplementary vote system to First Pass the Post. Under the old system candidates of the left would hope to benefit from the second platforms choices of Lib Dem, Greens and others at that end…
As most people will know I am a Lib Dem and that I live very close to the mid Bedfordshire constituency where there will be a by-election. What is intriguing about the current contest is that you can make out a case for Labour, the Tory or the Lib Dems to come out on top. I cannot recall a by-election in modern times which was effectively a three horse race. Given the proximity of the General Election then all the…
Wikipedia notes: The former MP, Chris Pincher, a former Deputy Chief Whip, was involved in a controversy following allegations of sexual misconduct. Pincher resigned as Deputy Chief Whip on 30 June 2022, and he was suspended as a Conservative MP after allegations arose that he sexually assaulted two men. Further allegations were made in July, which pre-dated his appointment by Boris Johnson, and Johnson originally denied that he knew of the complaints. It was later revealed Johnson had been aware, and many…
Above is the latest Scottish poll from R&W and as can be seen the SNP are now running neck and neck with LAB. Given the proximity of the general election, this could be highly significant especially as Scotland could provide a major source of LAB gains in its effort to form the next government. To put this into context currently just one of the constituencies north of the border was held by Labour at GE2015 In the aftermath of the…
Probably the biggest Westminster by-election shock of recent times was the failure by LAB to take Boris Johnson’s old seat at Uxbridge in the July contest. What we saw there was a foretaste of how the Tories will play the general election. They’ll have different versions of a local issue like ULEZ each day over the five weeks. My main conclusion is that marginal seat by marginal seat the Tories are going to be harder to beat than current polling…