I wonder if the future of polling in Britan will not be MRPs or the usual national VI polls but sticking to geographical polling. In Scotland the standard voting intention polls largely spotted the repudiation of the SNP at the ballot, and losing a third of your voters counts as a repudiation. I am starting to think the MRPs led to poor resource targeting by some parties which does have an impact. As expected Alba didn’t have any real impact….
I try not to be smug but being a member of the Tories for electoral reform was a lonely business like but seeing more and more Tories embrace electoral reform is encouraging but I wish they had done something about it when the Tories were in power. Much like how the a Tory PM introduced Section 28 to a Tory PM introducing same-sex marriage I suspect a Tory leader will go from defending first past the post to putting in…
It appears that Danny Krueger and others are switching from Suella Braverman to Robert Jenrick which is bad news for her, she’s not very loyal and a caricature of herself. Braverman is the sort of person that would unplug somebody’s life support machine so she could charge her mobile. She’s a clear lay in the next Tory leader market. I think the best bet is on former Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero Claire Coutinho who I…
1) The collapse of the SNP. They lost half a million votes (42% of their 2019 total) and with it 39 seats. Its remaining 9 seats are not remotely safe – 7 of them are in the top 10 most marginal seats in Scotland. 2) The collapse of the Tories. They lost nearly 400k votes – more than half their 2019 total. That only lost them one seat vs 2019, but they are just not as powerful as they were….
I am not sure how France has a workable government based on these early scores. Summoning the spirit of the Battle of Verdun the French always seem to use the second to tell the far right you shall not pass into government. This will impact my betting strategy for the next French presidential election, I do not expect the far right candidate to win. TSE
I am shocked to learn that People Polling turned out to be the most inaccurate pollster at the general election. I am re-evaluating all the other assumptions I had in life such as the Sun orbiting the Earth, water not being wet, and the French being wonderful. I like the observation on the exit poll by Professor Jennings which reinforces my views expressed before the election that people would be foolish to bet big against Sir John Curtice and the…
One of the golden rules in British politics is you cannot mess around with the houses and mortgages of the voters. In her short time as First Lord of the Treasury she was responsible for the issues mortgages going up a lot and that that chart by Professor Jennings confirms that maxim. I have my doubts about the Tories benefiting from interest rates being cut later on this year as it would have left mortgage costs still higher than the…
Interestingly this polling was taken before election day and extreme inequitable distribution of seats that we saw. My suggestion is that we have two plebiscites, the first one to decide on what system to replace first past the post with, conducted under the alternative vote system to rank your preferences such as STV, AV, etc. Then we have a referendum on whether if we want to replace FPTP with the winner of the first referendum. This polling does scare and…