politicalbetting.com

Quite what lies behind the reports that Michelle Obama could run for the presidency I do not know. What we have seen is a fair amount of speculation in the US media in the past 24 hours.But the betting markets, as the Smarkets chart shows, illustrates Michelle’s populaarity. Biden’s big problem is age. He’ll be 82 in November when the election takes place and there is little doubt about Michelle Obama’s popularity. Her husband, Barack, can’t run again having served…

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The current PB server, which I shall call Icarus, has been doing excellent service for six years. But is now beginning to show its age. With this year having both US elections and UK elections, it’s time for an upgrade. I am a lot better system admin than I was when PB first started, so there’s at least a 50% chance that the server migration will happen without a hitch. It is, however, entirely possible that today will see a…

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I happen to agree with Mandelson and I don’t believe that the election will see party vote shares in line with what the polls are currently predicting. A big factor, as I have pointed out before, is that LAB’s poll lead is very much driven by those GE2019 CON voters who are now saying “don’t know”. I still think that Starmer will be the PM after the election but his majority (if indeed there is one) will be much smaller…

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I’m less sure and have a small bet that he won’t be the nominee There are so many issues and court cases concerning Trump that it is very hard to monitor. One that we could see a resolution on quite soon is the Supreme Court decision in the Colorado case where it was argued that because of his involvement in the January 6th 2021 events Trump should be banned from the election. I’ve just got a feeling that the “Deep…

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There is much betting interest on the date of the next general election. Might it be in May, or November? The one thing we do know is that it can’t be any later than January 2025, because that’s the deadline set by law. Of course, in theory, the law could be changed, although to do so would be a constitutional outrage barring some national emergency. Yet there is one part of the UK where this is happening right now, for…

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