Ladbrokes think the Tory contest winner will not lead the party at the GE

Ladbrokes think the Tory contest winner will not lead the party at the GE

I am currently under the weather so have not had the time to look at these markets properly but my initial view is that the time value of money makes the first market unattractive. As for the second market, they payout could be potentially nearly two decades away after Prime Minister Badenoch or Prime Minister Jenrick decide to stand down after their second or third term as Prime Minister. Under the current Tory leadership rules which date back to 2001…

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Record breakers

Record breakers

The voters aren’t enamoured with either major party at the moment. With potentially 57 months until the election only an idiot would predict the outcome of the next general election now, only the heir to the throne of the kingdom of idiots would confidently predict the outcome of the next general election now. TSE

Jenrick slips to third place with punters today and likely third place with MPs tomorrow

Jenrick slips to third place with punters today and likely third place with MPs tomorrow

Laying the favourite is usually a good strategy (which is a strategy I used with Kemi Badenoch shortly after the general election) thankfully I backed her last week when her price cratered and also backed Cleverly at 7s last month. Robert Jenrick to not make the final two is a strong possibility, almost feels inevitable now. TSE

The State of the Union, Week 6

The State of the Union, Week 6

You could change ‘state’ to ‘stasis’ in the title, and you wouldn’t be far wrong: hardly any movement since last week, which is exactly how I started off last week’s comments. So, what movement has there been? In national polling, Harris has a slight edge, but there’s been a small shift towards Trump. Harris is clearly favourite to win the popular vote, but that of course isn’t what counts.In the Electoral College, 538 has moved North Carolina from Trump to…

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More momentum for Cleverly

More momentum for Cleverly

Today sees Tory MPs voting in the third round of the Tory leadership contest and James Cleverly has the momentum, the endorsement of Mel Stride should ensure Tugendhat goes out today and tomorrow sees the end of Badenoch. TSE