I like this analysis by Ben Walker which shows how close the Tories are to a 1931 in reverse result, which notes ‘Britain Predicts finds more than half of the 100-150 seats the Tories are currently forecast to hold will be with majorities of 5pts or less.’ Not only are we a small polling error away from a 1931 in reverse type of result even if the polls do not narrow as they usually do during the campaign. When you…
In the UK we don’t have truly national elections, each general election comprises 650 simultaneous local contests. In theory. In practice the vast majority of voters in the vast majority of seats cast their ballot on the basis of the party, or party leader, they prefer. Most don’t care, and many don’t even know, about their local candidates. That is true in almost every seat. But one of the rare exceptions might throw a stunning curveball on election night. Independent…
It is with great delight I can annonce Sporting Index have opened the seat spreads for the general election. I think Labour are a sell at the moment based on 1997 simply because we might see a rogue/outlier poll or two. In 1997 nine days before election day the gold standard ICM had the Labour lead down to 5%. It might be wiser to buy the Tories, I haven’t fully decided yet. It is not unknown for pollsters to tweak…
Labour activists may never stop arguing about 2017. Was it an almost-victory prevented only by centrist sabotage or a dead cat bounce which proved Jeremy Corbyn couldn’t even beat ‘The Maybot’ with several lucky breaks? Whatever it was, it was the 5th most votes the Labour Party has ever won. Corbyn won more votes than Clement Attlee in 1945 or Tony Blair in 2001. Could he win more than Starmer in 2024/25? Actually, he could. Electoral Equations Obviously Corbyn’s result…
The magic number required to oust Rishi Sunak is not the 52 letters to trigger a vote of confidence in him but the 173 Tory MPs required to vote against Sunakm the chance of the latter happening is as infetismal a Boris Johnson being a declared husband of the century. The general election is taking place on the fourth of July, the sooner these Tory MPs accept that the better, if their plan does work do they really want cancer…
Longtime readers of PB know much Mike Smithson and I value leader satisfaction ratings. Whilst Starmer’s ratings aren’t historically impressive that really doesn’t matter when Sunak’s and the government’s rating are so dire. Sunak’s decision to call a July election today may turn out to be a date which will live in infamy. TSE
Looking at that polling table it is quite a courageous decision by Rishi Sunak to hold an election with the Tories so far behind in the polls but I am not complaining as I tipped a July election at 20s a few weeks ago. TSE
I tipped July 2024 as the month of the election at 20s a few weeks ago is now down to 2.04. I feel content. TSE