The Republicans have regained the favourites slot after Trump’s latest tariffs announcement. I suspect over the next few months this betting market may end up reflecting the US markets both in terms of equity and borrowing costs. TSE
i find this polling intriguing because I was expecting more Republican voters to a) want Trump to have a third term and b) believe the constitution allows him to do so. TSE
‘A true victory is to make your enemy see they were wrong to oppose you in the first place. To force them to acknowledge your greatness.’ – Gul Dukat, Star Trek: Deep Space Nine. I find this polling fascinating, for the simple fact that the public see Labour’s cuts as significantly more unfair than the coalition cuts. George Osborne must be experiencing a frisson of comfort upon seeing this polling and channelling his inner Gul Dukat. This polling is the…
When it comes to winning elections in America, it’s the economy, stupid, which is why I thought Donald Trump would win last year given his lead on the economic questions so these findings are important for the midterms and the 2028 election. My expectation is that if Trump sticks to his tariff plans then his ratings will get much worse as the reality of tariffs hits the average American. Trump won thanks to the cost of living crisis and if…
William Hill have some markets on what Trump’s second term will deliver. A golden rule of betting is not to get involved in markets when the bookie doesn’t offer both sides of the market however I am attracted by the 5/1 on Trump to take the USA out of NATO. The way he is behaving it wouldn’t be a shock to see it happen. TSE
I find this polling fascinating because it covers some diverse but some interconnected issues. I think Starmer will be delighted his handling has5 led to some good polling for him. Brexiteers will be disappointed to see a 10% tariff as a Brexit dividend but 23% say it makes Brexit the right decision whereas 34% disagree. TSE
A feature of the classical Greek world was that long-term alliances, as we would understand the term, rarely existed. A major power, be it Athens, Sparta, Thebes, or Macedon, would attempt to assert supremacy over its neighbours, and if successful, it would be accepted by them as Hegemon. Typically, a Hegemon would expect its allies to follow it in war, accept garrisons of its soldiers, and colonies of its citizens, and frequently, pay them tribute. The Hegemon’s allies were therefore,…
On Friday I pointed out that Starmer’s ratings were improving (and Farage’s ratings fell) and it is no surprise to see Labour’s ratings improve whilst Reform’s fall. I am keen on this type of polling because it gives an indication what level of tactical voting we might see against the parties. Normally I would expect Labour to have a substantial edge on this but based on this Labour might not have much advantage over Reform but the caveat is that…