Why the Tories find themselves in a pickle
In short they’ve annoyed different voters for different reasons and winning them back without annoying groups will be a challenge. TSE
A week is a long time in politics
This time last week Joe Biden was the Democratic Party nominee. TSE
Laying the favourite
The Sunday Times are reporting that Listening is not just smart politics but an attempt to answer the charge made by some colleagues that Badenoch is more often on transmit than receive. Hanging over her head are claims that a “dirty dossier” on her has been circulated, something about which she posted on Twitter/X last week. Her team breathed a sigh of relief that a biography by the former peer Michael Ashcroft, extracts of which appeared this weekend, contained no…
Crucial polling on Kamala Harris
TSE
I feel sorry for Armando Iannucci and satirists everywhere
The Guardian reported that From Donald Trump’s “Make America great again” (Maga) to Margaret Thatcher’s “There is no alternative” (Tina), political acronyms have long distilled what leaders stand for. Tom Tugendhat has now inadvertently created his own four-letter calling card: Turd. The Tory leadership hopeful briefly adopted the slogan “Together we can, Unite the party. Rebuild trust. Defeat Labour” when he launched his bid on Wednesday. A graphic breaking it down into four lines was visible on his campaign website. Eagle-eyed social…
Will the felon debate the prosecutor?
I hope we get to see a betting market on whether there is a Trump v Harris debate. TSE
The kaleidoscope has been shaken. The pieces are in flux.
I have thought the path to victory for Kamala Harris would be difficult and I think Donald Trump is still the favourite. The analysis in Harry Enten’s original Tweet implies the Biden 2020/24 coalition might not transfer 100% to Harris but also gives her scope to win votes and states that were seemingly out of reach for the Dems, even Texas might be in play, Biden had one path to victory, Harris may have more. Once we start seeing more…
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Or why elections in 2024 were good ones to win It’s a theme I’ve riffed on before, but the last four years have been pretty miserable for consumers in the developed world, largely because commodity prices have risen sharply. And when commodity prices rise, then other prices (but not wages) will follow. Higher natural gas prices mean more expensive electricity, which not only squeezes household budgets, but means that fertilizer is more expensive (the Haber process), making food cost more….