I expect when people realise I am backing the Lib Dems to win the most seats at the next general election some of you will send me links to the Gamble Aware website but my logic is based on this being an excellent (trading) bet for the following reasons. So that’s why I think 50/1 is good trading bet an you can also get around 48/1 on Betfair. TSE
A Westminster insider once observed to me that poll politicians most take notice of is the poll that has them doing the worst as politicians are a glass half empty type of people and this YouGov poll today is a shocker. The Tory party which (in)famously only ever panics in a crisis might soon be having another ‘moment’ if they start ending up behind the Lib Dems and still stuck in the teens. Up until quite recently I thought Kemi…
Whilst the Brexit Party won Wales in the 2019 European elections this Senedd polling is seismic, and if turns out to be true I wonder if Labour finish third or lower then Starmer might quit. Starmer did contemplate quitting after the Hartlepool by-election so Starmer might actually quit after losing Wales, so the 5/1 on him quitting in 2026 offered by Ladbrokes looks tempting. TSE
This polling from More In Common is interesting on several levels. It appears that new Reform supporters are driven by a disillusionment with Labour and the Tories than unequivocally backing every Reform policy enthusiastically. If Labour can display some competence and deliver some improvements they could win back plenty of supporters, with potentially over four years to the next election there’s plenty of time for them to turn it around but so far it appears Labour are trying to prove…
In a Monday interview, MAGA influencer Steve Bannon asked Greene what advice she would give to President Donald Trump as Congress tries to pass legislation based on his agenda. “Stick with the agenda and ignore the people here in Washington that are trying to get you to do something different,” Greene advised. “It’s the Republicans that are the problem, Steve.” TSE
A fun betting market for the next general election would be the lowest winning vote share at the next election would be. TSE
History, as we know, tends to pivot on the smallest of decisions. One such decision came in the autumn of 1978 when Prime Minister Jim Callaghan chose not to call a general election, leading to the “Winter of Discontent” and the downfall of his Labour government. But what if Callaghan had gone to the country in October 1978, as many of his advisers urged, and secured a narrow but workable majority? Britain’s political, economic, and geopolitical trajectory could have been…
Having seen in the past John Howard lose his seat this isn’t a new experience in Australian politics but the second leader in a week associated/compared/endorsed to/by Donald Trump lose the election and their seat. I wonder if we’ll see a similar impact at the next UK general election. Being a friend of Donald might be a problem. Until a couple of months ago the Coalition led under the two-party-preferred polling. One difference between Australia and UK is that Australia…