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This is the second in a series looking at the challenges and opportunities for the 7 main Great Britain parties.  This time we will look at Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalists. Plaid have received a very consistent share of the vote (apart from the very first Senedd election). In UK General Elections, they do slightly better in years when the Tories are doing badly. Geography I would recommend Tim Marshall’s Power of Geography books. These show how geography has impacted…

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Such a rapid turnover in leaders often indicates a much wider malaise If these rebels are successful then the SNP will have had four First Ministers during this Holyrood term which is more Prime Ministers the Tories had during the 2019 to 2024 Westminster Parliament. When you go through this many leaders in this short a period it damages your credibility with the voters. I cannot see any betting markets related to this but I wouldn’t be surprised to see…

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My view is that the economy is what primarily decides general elections and the first finding from More in Common shows where Reform’s economic polices that would make Liz Truss blush are seen a risk. The voters will find with a Reform government the dildo of consequences rarely arrives lubed. However the good news for Reform is after the disaster that was Liz Truss and the inutility of Rachel Reeves means the risks about a Reform government might be negated,…

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I am not sure this polling matters, I remember the Labour Party very divided in the run up to the 2017 general election and whilst Jeremy Corbyn still lost the election finishing 64 seats of a majority he could have become Prime Minister if the seat distribution had been slightly different. TSE

If you are a believer in the mantra that is ‘the trend is your friend’ then Irish unity feels inevitable but I cannot spot any value in the markets offered by Ladbrokes. My own hunch is the 7% who favour Northern Irish independence would overwhelmingly back reunification in any actual plebiscite. TSE

TSE

I suspect what is driving this is that there’s an expectation there will be swingback to the government by the time of the next election and that most of the centre-left will coalesce behind Labour to stop Farage becoming Prime Minister. TSE

If the current narrative holds for the next few years then the focus will be on what a Reform government will do when they take power and on some areas that could be a weakness and damage their chances of taking power. One area is the DOGE angle, given how unpopular Trump and Musk are with the British public then Labour, the Tories, and the Lib Dems will focus on this if they are wise, the outcome of the British…

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