politicalbetting.com

The New York mayoral election has garnered a lot attention with Zohran Mamdani winning the Democratic Party who many on the GOP have dubbed a communist. The state of moral turpitude of the current iteration of the GOP is that elected officials want Mamdani deported and in fact President Trump has indicated he would arrest him. Assuming a free and fair election is held then I wonder the value is backing former disgraced Governor Andrew Cuomo and the Republican Curtis…

Read More Read More

I was reviewing some older political betting markets and I found this from December 2019 after Jeremy Corbyn lost another general election and announced his resignation. I often wonder about the road not taken, like Starmer she is a lawyer and we know how well they win elections, see here, but would her Corbynite leanings held her back? One thing I have noticed is the betting markets have a tendency to underestimate Sir Keir Starmer. TSE

Next year’s American elections could be popcorntastic. I wish there were markets on Elon Musk ending up in ICE custody and/or being deported. TSE

It’s all getting a bit The Judean People’s Front, The Judean People’s Popular Front, The Campaign for a Free Galilee, The Popular Front of Judea, and The People’s Front for Judea around the populist right but I suspect Nigel Farage’s brand will be resilient enough to deal with these splitters. TSE

One of my criticisms of this Starmer government is that they don’t act like a government that won a majority of 174 last year, the epitaph so far is a government in office but not in power. TSE

It’s good to be provocative. But to describe Jenrick being a lawyer as his secret weapon because it makes them good leaders and the country loves lawyers is not so much provocative as …. well, let’s see, shall we. As for Jenrick, he may be a sh*t (© @DavidL) but he’s also a dreadful lawyer, as shown by his dealings with Richard Desmond in 2021 (pointed out by me here). About the only good thing to be said for him…

Read More Read More

Alastair Meeks has forwarded me his exchange with Betfair which is something several of us have been pondering for a while, should Betfair list Donald Trump on the 2028 market and what happens if he runs in 2028 (or is allowed to run by the conservative majority on SCOTUS.) PB was founded because of the 2004 White House race and it pains me to tell PBers to avoid betting on the American presidential markets but the 2024 race was a…

Read More Read More

I don’t think it is any coincidence that from 1945 onwards the three best leaders of the opposition were lawyers, whilst the fourth, The Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton is now practically a lawyer following the news that he is in talks with law firm DLA Piper to go and work for them. If we add in Mrs Thatcher sustained electoral success then Robert Jenrick should play up his legal background if he wants to replace Kemi Badenoch and win…

Read More Read More