It’s easy to laugh at the inauspicious start Jeremy Corbyn & Zarah Sultana have made but long term they could cause Labour problems. Today Ipsos have reported Sir Keir Starmer has worse net ratings than Jeremy Corbyn so it is possible the new party picks up a substantial number of disaffected number of voters. The new party is going to have more MPs than Reform right now so that will also cause them to get more airtime than Corbyn &…
William Hill have this market up and the talk about Donald Trump running for a third time, many expect the Trump enabling majority on SCOTUS to somehow parse the constitution to say Trump would be eligible. I don’t expect they will but if they did I suspect they would parse the constitution to say Barack Obama is ineligible to run for a third term such is my (lack of) faith in SCOTUS. Another reason why I think this bet is…
The story my friends and colleagues have talked about the most in the past week is about the cheating couple at the Coldplay concert. I am not surprised that the Afghan data leak doesn’t feature higher. But these findings show why the events in Gaza are causing Starmer so much trouble. TSE
Ultimately I don’t think the Epstein storywill damage Donald Trump and I expect him to distract the nation with something else, 900% tariffs on all imports to the US, that sort of distraction technique. Mike Johnson has done a Boris Johnson by shutting down the House of Representatives until September to avoid a vote on releasing the Epstein files. A fun betting market would be where will Ghislaine Maxwell be on the 31st of December 2025, I can see a…
TSE
This is the 5th in a series looking at the challenges and opportunities for the 7 main Great Britain parties. Today we will look at the Scottish National Party. Feast or famine Unlike Plaid Cymru, the SNP have a more consistent level of support across Scotland. In 2025, this ranged from 17% in Edinburgh South to 40% in Angus and Perthshire Glens. This means the SNP are often in a feast or famine situation. 30% of the vote in 2024…
TSE
Last week I said if Reform were going to win the next general election then they would need to not look a party made up former Tory MPs because of the Tory legacies in so many area, especially immigration but it would appear that Reform voters are happy with the defectors. TSE