Today is the eightieth anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima and there’s plenty of discussion of whether the bombings were justified. For me this is the perfect of example of life giving not good or bad options but least worst options. Harry Truman who I consider a good man was faced with a difficult decision. Operation Downfall, the plan to invade Japan, would have seen a much bigger seaborne operation than D-Day which remains to this day the largest seaborne…
Like the Welsh rugby union team the fortunes of Welsh Labour are going sub-optimally and it is possible that at next year’s Senedd election Labour finish third which would be quite revelation in a part of Britain where the old joke was that they didn’t count Labour votes but weighed them. Back in the first devolved elections in 1999 in combined vote shares Plaid Cymru did better than the SNP but the SNP took power at Holyrood over 18 years…
A few weeks ago I tipped Jeremy Corbyn or Zarah Sultana to become Prime Minister before 2030 at odds of 100/1 with Ladbrokes. I don’t expect either to become PM before 2030 (odds fallings from 100/1 to 50/1 means something has gone from being extremely unlikely to very unlikely) but I’d expect some polls in the next few months showing their party doing well which would impact their odds so I saw it as a decent trading bet. I still…
Based on current polling the the future for the Tory party is as rosy as it was for Japan on the evening of the 5th of August 1945. Relentless optimist that I am I do think there is an opportunity for the Tory party by portraying itself as the party of fiscal discipline in contrast to Labour and Reform but I have said in the past the way to achieve that ia to repudiate Liz Truss in a way the…
Brexit isn’t going well and this poll is another example of the public’s dissatisfaction with it. I am quite surprised that a majority want a second referendum within the next five years (when you exclude don’t knows.) If Labour are still struggling in the polls in the run up to the 2029 general election a second referendum might be Labour’s hail Mary move. If you don’t mind tying up your money for five years then you might want to take…
I hope a bookie puts up a market on Canada joining the EU (or at least opening talks about joining the EU.). I love Canadian politics, this year was really profitable for me, because I tipped Pierre Poilievre to lose his seat at 14/1. TSE
The English & Welsh Greens are having a leadership election (and you can bet on that outcome with Ladbrokes) and I think the value, well a 20% return, is on backing Zach Polanski. Mr Polanski is a man who has tried in the past to try and enlarge women’s breasts through hypnotherapy which I am sure will be focussed upon if he becomes leader, if the headline ‘what a tit’ isn’t used I will be sorely disappointed. Longer term I…
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