The gender split is key
If/when Trump wins then the gender split will be why. The latest results have moved Betfair back to Trump. TSE
A bit of movement away from Trump on Betfair
I think the Indiana results are a bit of unwind because Mike Pence isn’t on the Republican ticket and Trump’s conduct towards Pence on that day of infamy that was January 6th 2021 but the exit poll from Georgia looks good for Trump. I am intrigued that Indiana hasn’t been insta-called by the networks yet. [Edit – CNN haven’t called it but AP have.) TSE
Voting is certainly brisk in this part of Pennsylvania
I am always wary when I see videos like this as they seem to infer record breaking turnout, they haven’t moved the Betfair market. TSE
State of the Union, Election Day
So here we are, finally at election day. And as the comedian Emo Phillips said, ‘It’s hard to believe that this long, crazy election will finally be over in a few months.’ Because it’s that close. None of the models give either candidate much of a margin, from 538 having it 270-268 for Harris, to the 287-251 margins given by Nate Silver and RCP (note also that Nate’s Monte Carlo simulations disagree with his state y state model, giving Harris…
The latest betting situation
TSE
What Americans are expecting the election result to be and when
TSE
Time to parse and over analyse every comment
Earlier I backed Kamala Harris thinking she was value, my ability to move betting markets remains unparalleled as her odds lengthened ever further, so she’s even more value now. I find Trump and Farage’s comments interesting but I am probably reading too much in to them. TSE
Popular mandates
With the polls predicting a very close race we shouldn’t be surprised if the winner of the electoral college will be the candidate who finished second in the popular vote. Since the Berlin Wall fell there have been eight American presidential elections and in seven of those elections the Republican party candidate have lost the popular vote so I can understand why people would want to back Trump in this Betfair market but I think the value is with Harris…