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This is the second poll since Humza Yousaf’s announcement that he was going to resign and it is another poll showing the SNP falling back in the polls. I would wait until we have first poll conducted entirely after John Swinney became First Minister before making definitive pronouncements. I would also consider the Holyrood polls a bit of an irrelevance at the moment, the result of the Westminster election in any direction could alter voting intentions there particularly if the…

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I have been bemoaning for months about the lack of constituency markets but we do have the first constituency market for the next election, after a fashion. Bob Blackman is defending a majority of 8,170 over Labour and I struggle to see how we will hold on if the current polls are close to being accurate but people who know the seat better than I might be able to shed if the 3/1 is value. Sadly Ladbrokes do not offer…

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If a Prime Minister and his party is a long way behind in the polls they will try and give themselves enough time to turn it around. I have repeatedly stated that any PM that held a general election campaign that straddled the Christmas and new year period would get gubbed in the polls however I am now leaning towards to a January election. Sunak thinks he needs time to turn things around before he is indelibly regarded as worse…

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As we can see from the chart above showing the Betfair overall majority market over the last ten days last week’s elections have reinforced the expectation abour Starmer winning a majority. Natalie Elphicke’s defection has left the market unmoved. TSE

About four hours ago if you had asked me about the chances of Natalie Elphicke defecting to Labour I would have replied with ‘There’s more chance of Suella Braverman defecting to Labour’ but here we are and David Gauke sums it up perfectly. In the short term I suspect the damage will be greater for the Tories as the defection gives off an air of decay, a bit like the last day of Rome with less fornication and even less…

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If there were a market on Brighton Pavillion at the next election then the money would have piled on to Labour yesterday. This would have based on yesterday’s cynical and gobsmacking decision by the Siân Berry, Green Party’s candidate for Brighton Pavillion, to quit as a member of the London Assembly three days after being re-elected. Her rationale was to focus on her general election campaign something that was known about before she stood for re-election in London. Labour I…

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The locals didn’t offer much comfort for the Tories. The high point was Ben Houchen surviving a 17% swing against him. The Lib Dems won more councillors than them for the first time since 1996. But there was one glimmer of hope: Reform UK fell a fair bit short of what their national polling would suggest. The Right Benchmarks They say history never repeats, but the rise of Reform is as close as we’ll get. Farage’s new party (with someone…

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One of the reasons I am expecting Joe Biden to win this November is that he will get Dem voters out whilst the Insurrectionist-in-Chief and his party of democracy deniers will struggle to do so. These two polls back this up and why the initial headline figures can be actively misleading and why likely voters might be the ones to focus on. I suspect during the campaign with more focus on the GOP, Trump, and abortion then Biden’s lead might…

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