I think this is an example of post hoc ergo propter hoc as Keir was never a popular name unlike David. Only five boys were named Nigel last year which gives some context to the above numbers, in fact more boys were named Lucifer than Nigel. TSE
If the polling maintains this current trajectory then I would expect it would put the kibosh on any talk of Trump running in 2028 and damage the GOP in the 2026 midterms. We saw in 2024 how not looking compos mentis is debiltating for a president and their party. TSE
I love over parsing comments and I am intrigued by the use of for now by Kamala Harris in her statement, she said ‘For now, my leadership and public service will not be in elected office.’ This makes me wonder if she might run for the presidency in 2028. Ladbrokes are offering 50/1 on her winning in 2028 if you are interpreting her comments the same way I am. TSE
I am surprised The Great Financial Crisis isn’t higher but that might be down to my own personal views where voters felt a real disconnect as banks were bailed out but the voters weren’t nor were the companies they worked at or liked bailed out when they needed help. I suspect Starmer or whoever leads Labour going into the next general election may propose rejoining the EU/a closer union with the EU in the next parliament to allow the centre-left…
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I think we might be approaching the point where there might be some value in backing in the Tories which is essentially a bet on Reform exploding due to scandal, internal contradictions, Farage quitting, etc but we’re not at that point yet. There’s also the potential for the Tories ending up second in the polls in the next few months if the Your Party takes around 5% or so from Labour. TSE
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This announcement by John Swinney feels very strange, the voting system at Holyrood was set up to ensure no party won a majority and in the six Holyrood elections only once has a party won a majority and that was in 2011 when Alex Salmond led the SNP. For a variety of reasons John Swinney is no Alex Salmond and even with an increasingly divided Unionist opposition I am struggling to see how the SNP win a majority next year…