Ladbrokes have a couple of markets up on Irish reunification and to be honest they feel like giving Ladbrokes an interest free loan for five years. The trigger for an Irish border poll is codified unlike Scottish independence and for me the trigger will be Sinn Féin winning the most Westminster seats (ideally whilst they are in power in Dublin) and I cannot see both of those happening prior to 2030. TSE
Yesterday it emerged that some of next year’s local elections could be postponed due to local government reforms that would see more areas get unitary councils. It looks like it doesn’t have much support, but I suspect at people see the benefits support will increase. TSE
There’s not a lot to say about this poll from Ipsos other than i) this quite some achievement by Sir Keir and ii) there’s plenty of time for Sir Keir to turn this around iii) Boris Johnson showed in 2019 it is possible to win an election with poor ratings so long as your opponent has even worse ratings. TSE
TSE
One of the laziest and stupidest takes in British politics is that if there is a merger/alliance/pact between the Tories and Reform then everybody who votes or plans to vote Tory and Reform will vote for the new alliance and it is good news for the Tories that Kemi Badenoch is aware of this. For example I know many Tories who utterly despise Farage for his pro Putin appeasement words on Ukraine and would never vote to put him in…
I like this poll from Ipsos showing who the public thinks will be on Santa’s naughty and nice lists. As a feminist I cannot but help notice that men dominate the naughty list, this is further proof that the patriarchy needs smashing. TSE
Sandwichgate has led to, ahem, robust debate between Badenoch and Farage on the platform that I will forever call Twitter. TSE
TSE