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In two significant ways, Reform UK supporters, and that subset which knows how to hold a writing implement and thus become Reform UK voters, are like senior military officers. First, they only want to hear things that they already know to be true. Second, they assume that anything they don’t personally understand must be simple. Immigration, and particularly informal migration via channel crossings in small boats, has been successfully weaponised to such a degree that it is now perceived as…

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My expectation for 16 and 17 year olds will be much lower than the rest of the electorate but if this polling is close to the actual result at the next election then this is good news for Reform as Labour’s lead over Reform becomes a rounding error. As I predicted the party most damaged by this new party is the Greens. I suspect a lot of attention will be drawn to Nigel Farage having better ratings than Sir Keir…

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Looking at this list from Ladbrokes I think Corbyn has a more plausible route to become mayor that people who according to Ladbrokes have a better chance of winning than Corbyn. I can see Corbyn’s brand of politics appealing to London in 2028 so at 25/1 I feel a trading bet is in order but I understand why punters might want to swerve this bet. TSE Update – PBer NigelB suggested this tip yesterday too.

Nigel Farage has gone out of his way to avoid associating with members of the BNP and Tommy Robinson because the polling in the past has shown those two have toxic ratings and this More In Common poll shows the risks of the Tories and Reform making Lucy Connolly a martyr. If Labour are to win the next election they are going to win the next election they are likely to need centre left voters to tactically vote for them…

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Later tonight the studio lights at the Antenna Media Centre in Nottingham will be switched off. They will not be turned on again. Today marks the last day of broadcasting by Notts TV, part of a pioneering experiment in hyper-local TV services first launched by Jeremy Hunt under the Coalition government. The channel, which broadcasts a small number of hours of local news, sport, culture and current affairs debates per week, is available on Freeview channel 7 (the old BBC…

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Given Labour’s current polling figures I cannot see why Labour, with a majority north of 150, would want to call an election this year or next year, I expect Starmer and Labour to go long and hold the election in 2029. If Labour/Starmer call an election this year or next year it would be the greatest self inflicted wound a political party has experienced since the Tories made Liz Truss Prime Minister. Backing 2025 or 2026 do not appeal even…

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I wonder if this will make Farage reluctant to announce detailed policies before the election. TSE

Several years ago I had a chat with somebody from the world of politics and their sage advice was to me is that political obsessives massively overestimate the interest the general public take in politics which is why stories that we think should shift perceptions and voting intentions often don’t. Most of the public know who the Prime Minister, the Leader of the Opposition, and Chancellor of the Exchequer are, they don’t care who the Chancellor of the Duchy of…

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