The money goes on the Lib Dems The initial verdict from the betting markets to the Hartlepool result is that it’s the Lib Dems who will benefit most at the General Election. The spread markets on Commons seats are:- SportingIndex – LAB 337-345 (nc): CON 210-218 (-2): LIBD 70–75 (+3) IG Index 336-344 (+3) : CON 206-214 (-6) : LIBD 71-75 (+3) The next House of Commons will consist of 646 seats so a party needs 324 to be sure…
How will punters react to Blair’s health, Hartlepool and the debate? With the Hartlepoool by-election, Tony Blair’s health news and the first Kerry-Bush TV debate it’s likely that we’ll see a lot of activity on betting markets right across the board. Labour Leader at General Election A considerable amount of movement here and we expect the Blair price to move out in spite of the statement of his plans for the future. The by-election victory would make it easier for…
Tory tactical voters hold the key The more we think about this the more we believe that it will be the Tories who’ll decide how this by election will go. The thinking that they will follow their allegiance is based on the July 15 contests when they kept within 2-3% of their General Election peformance. But two things are different: the Conservatives have put a lot less into the Hartlepool campaign and Labour’s campaign strategy to make the LD candidate…
Follow the money to get early clues on which party has won? The Betfair betting exchange market on Hartlepool will continue throughout the day right upto the point in the early hours of tomorrow morning when the result is declared. If it’s like Brent East, Leicester South and Hodge Hill, the betting exchange market should be a good guide to what’s happening. As the day wears on the officials will start to get an idea of, first, what the turn-out…
The weather forecast for Hartlepool tomorrow is for rain although it should clear by the evening. Quite what effect, if any, this will have on turnout or voting we do not know although the received wisdom is that it does not help Labour. A bigger effect on turnout, compared with the July contests, might be that it goes dark earlier in late September. Sunset in Hartlepool tomorrow is at 6.42 pm and it’s always harder for the parties to get…
Is there betting value on the Lib Dems? As the Hartepool campaign goes into its final day the big question for political gamblers is whether there is any value in the prices available on the Lib Dems or is the by-election the certainty that the current Labour odds seem to indicate? All betting is about value. Are the chances of something happening better than the odds available – if they are then you have a value bet. Prices have moved…
Is the Prime Minister’s job on the line on Thursday? With just two days to go before voters in Hartlepool go to the polls a leading Guardian commentator has suggested that a victory for the Lib Dems could mark the end for Tony Blair. As part of extensive by-election coverage in the paper today Martin Kettle speculates:- It has been a long time since a party leader’s future hung on the future of a byelection. But it is true of…
There’s been a big move back to Labour in the Hartlepool markets with William Hill coming back in at a price of 1/6. The Lib Dems are at 7/2. The Betfair betting exchange has responded in the same fashion although the current Labour price is slightly better value at about 1/4. It’s a fairly light market with just £1,600 being matched between 9am and 6pm. It could be that just one or two punters are forcing the price down and…