Latest electoral vote estimate – Kerry 280 – Bush 239 The Democratic challenger, John Kerry, has moved into the lead on the electoral college calculator based on the latest state polls. This is the first time since the conventions that Kerry has been in this position and the news comes as he prepares for the second of the set-piece TV debates with President Bush. It was Kerry’s performance in the first debate eight days ago that turned the tide for…
Can he repeat the 1979 magic? The Conservative Conference this week has been the first public “outing” for the new re-branded party that’s been created by the new Co-Chairman, Maurice Saatchi – one of the legendry advertising guru brothers behind the 1979 election campaign that led the Tories to victory and heralded the start of the Thatcher era. The Saatchi skill is in finding the phrase and the image that encapsulates the public mood. The new “low key” non-controversial look…
Back Bush to lose and Blair to go How are the political fortunes of George Bush and Tony Blair going to be affected by the findings of the Iraq Survey Group about the lack of WMDs, especially as this come on top of the acceptance by Donald Rumsfield that Saddam was not responsible for 11 September? Even before the WMD report the the White House race was moving back to John Kerry after his success in the TV debate last…
Cashing in on changes in market sentiment With UKIP losing its major donor and a reasonably favourable reaction to Michael Howard’s conference speech could this be the time to back the Conservatives on the spread markets? One of the great features of betting exchanges and spread markets is that you can make money by betting short-term on your assessment of market sentiment – not on the ultimate outcome. And we believe that sentiment is going to move one or two…
The price has gone too high After yesterday’s Populus Poll there’s been more movement on the spread betting markets and we have now reached the stage where the price on the Lib Dems is so high that we must suspend our BUY call. We first made this in mid June when the spread was for the party to get 54-58 seats. Since then the price has soared and soared and it has reached a point where it is no longer…
Today’s Populus Poll would probably carry a lot more weight if it was not so out of line with what the same pollster found just eight days ago. Within that short period:- Labour has jumped 7% from third to first place; the Tories are down 4% from first to second place ; and the Lib Dems are down from second to third place and are also down 4% The figures are CON 28%(-4), LAB 35%(+7), LD 25%(-4) For a good…
A new bet for Blair-Brown watchers A well-thought and promising new market has just been launched by William Hill on when Blair will go. The prices are attractive:- Before end 2005 – 3/1 2006 11/8 2007 10/3 2008 5/1 2009 9/1 2010 & beyond 16/1 Unlike some recent William Hill markets that seemed more designed to attract publicity rather than bets this is being made available online right from the start. This is a good sign because it does look…
UPDATED SUNDAY 5AM Is now the time to back Kerry? The first polls following Thursday’s White House debate in Miami show a big majority of those who watched saying that John Kerry was the winner. An ABC news poll had it 45% Kerry to 36% Bush. Meanwhile the first post-debate poll on the race itself has been conducted and puts Kerry in the lead by 47-45. There’s been a big move back to John Kerry in the betting and the…