Which US pollster is best for you?

Which US pollster is best for you?

Is the Bush-Cheney ticket a certainty? Since the Republican Convention in New York at the end of August the betting markets have followed the polls and Bush is a red hot favourite. It’s hard to call anything other than Bush. But it’s worth looking back at what happened last time to check which pollsters were most accurate. These were the final polls. CNN/Gallup tracking poll: Bush over Gore 47-45. Wall St. Journal: Bush over Gore 47-44. ABC/Washington Post: Bush over…

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Labour poll decline hits Hartlepool markets

Labour poll decline hits Hartlepool markets

Populus – Labour in third place nationally A series of bad national opinion surveys for Labour in the Sunday papers have transformed the betting for Thursday’s by-election in Hartlepool to elect a replacement for Peter Mandelson who has quit Westminster to become a Euro Commissioner. Yesterday morning we were suggesting that the 4/1 then available on the Lib Dems on the betting exchanges was “tempting”. As of the time of posting that price has tightened to 8/5. So yesterday a…

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Hartlepool Price watch – where’s the money going?

Hartlepool Price watch – where’s the money going?

Labour nervousness – not much Lib Dem confidence There’s currently almost no support for Labour at the heavy odds-on prices on the Betfair exchange and prices are easing. At the same time there’s been a slight hardening in the Lib Dem price. The LDs are now at about 100/30 down from between 9/2 and 4/1. Labour has moved out from 1/5 to about 1/4. What’s very telling is that currently there’s nobody offering to bet on Labour at anything less…

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Can Chris Rennard turn the battle of the blog in Hartlepool?

Can Chris Rennard turn the battle of the blog in Hartlepool?

Labour – speaking up for drunks and irresponsible pet owners With the campaign going into its final weekend Labour remain very firm favourites to hold onto the seat vacated by Peter Mandelson. If you want to bet on Labour then the best price is 2/5 from PaddyPower. For the Lib Dems the fluctuating Betfair betting exchange price seems to offer the best value. The betting odds are in spite of Labour following precisely the same type of campaign that saw…

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Labour’s present to Michael Howard

Labour’s present to Michael Howard

The tactical vote unwind – Labour style With the Lib Dems stating that “replacing the Tory party as the opposition” is their current objective a remarkable piece of Labour campaigning has been reported by a correspondent on the site. Villan sent us this message: “I live in a Tory-held Con/LibDem marginal. I was interested to get a Labour leaflet through the door the other day urging the “estimated 20-40% of Labour supporters who voted tactically for the LibDems in 2001″…

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Will Michael out talk Charles and Tony?

Will Michael out talk Charles and Tony?

Who’s going to make the longest conference speech? Another new political betting market – the fourth in two days – on which speech by the leaders of the three main parties is going to last the longest. The prices are Michael Howard 5/4: Tony Blair 6/4: Charles Kennedy 2/1. Unlike the latest William Hill bets this market, from PaddyPower, is online. Acording to the BBC Kennedy’s speech today lasted for an hour so that’s the one to beat. The question…

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Kennedy PM? Now same odds as the Queen abdicating

Kennedy PM? Now same odds as the Queen abdicating

Yet another new Lib Dem market from William Hill. Somebody there is having a busy week! They are now offering the same odds on Charles Kennedy ever becoming Prime Minister as they are for the Queen to abdicate – 33/1. We do not generally like open-ended markets like this because the bookmakers gets hold of your money and can sit on it for a very long time. However 33/1 seems good value. If the Lib Dems do well at the…

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The Lib Dems are not worth 7/1 to come second

The Lib Dems are not worth 7/1 to come second

Don’t be carried away by the conference euphoria In an attempt to cash in on the euphoria of the Lib Dems Bournemouth conference William Hill today launched two new General election markets for the party netiher of which is online yet. They are quoting them at odds of 7/1 to record a higher percentage of votes polled than the Conservatives and at 10/1 to get more seats than the Tories. These prices are NOT GOOD VALUE even though we’ve been…

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