Is there betting value on the Lib Dems?
As the Hartepool campaign goes into its final day the big question for political gamblers is whether there is any value in the prices available on the Lib Dems or is the by-election the certainty that the current Labour odds seem to indicate?
All betting is about value. Are the chances of something happening better than the odds available – if they are then you have a value bet.
Prices have moved away from Labour during the day and to the Lib Dems. This was because the 1/6 Labour price that William quoted when it re-opened Hartlepool was not sustainable and prices had to be adjusted. This has been reflected in the Betfair betting exchange.
Both William Hill and Betfair have 11/4 against the Lib Dems and 1/4 and 1/3 on Labour respectively.
We think that Labour will probably just do it but that there’s enough of a chance for the Lib Dems to pull off a victory to make the 11/4 a value bet. The 1/3 on Labour is over-priced even though it has moved out and should be avoided until it’s at about 1/2.
What’s convinced us that there is value in the Lib Dem price is the remarkable revelation in the Guardian that Labour have had to pay people to stuff envelopes.
This might sound trivial but if they can’t find activists to do this most humdrum of jobs how are they going to get people out to the polling stations? Of course there’s been a huge amount of paper going out but getting envelope stuffing volunteers should be an easy task. Finding canvassers to knock on doors or make unsolicitated phone calls is much harder.
That poll two weeks ago putting Labour 33% ahead continues to affect the betting and the word emanating from LD party officials is that they predict that they are very close but they fear a “near miss”. There’s a huge mountain for the Lib Dems to climb.
But the lack of envelope stuffers and the soft betting price makes us look at the Labour campaign in a different light. The LDs are worth the 11/4. BACK.