As can be seen in the Smarkets chart Biden has continued to rise in the WH2024 betting and the main limitation he faces is in relation to his own health. When the primaries start in early January he will be 81 and that is surely going to become an issue. It is increasingly likely in the eyes of punters that WH2024 will be a rematch of WH2024 with Biden facing Trump. All the polling has voters saying that Biden should…
The big political betting news today is that a by-election looks set to take place in the Scottish seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West which was an SNP gain from LAB at GE2019. The Rutherglen and Hamilton West MP broke Covid rules in 2020 by traveling on a train from London to Scotland having tested positive. The standards watchdog recommended that she be banned from the Commons for 30 days – a punishment that has now been confirmed. This now leaves the…
It is becoming harder to see how the Home Secretary survives in her position following the revelations about her efforts to avoid a speeding ticket. The standard thing for drivers who are caught going over the limit is for them to either face a fine and three points on their licence or attend a special session on the dangers of going too fast. It is alleged that Braverman tried to get civil servants on her team to press for her…
Earlier on this week The Guardian reported that Conservatives need to recognise that elections are won on economics and public services rather than culture wars, Michael Gove has said in what will be seen as a rebuke to Suella Braverman. Addressing the National Conservatism (NatCon) conference in Westminster, a day after Braverman gave a highly partisan speech to the same event which condemned “experts and elites” and “political correctness”, Gove was at pains to make no direct criticism of the home secretary. But…
Recent revelations about SNP bookkeeping and motorhome buying have led to headlines about a sudden meltdown, but this is somewhat misleading. While their polling remained stable until late 2022 their position has looked increasingly precarious. The problem the SNP have is actually similar to the Tories. In 2019 (and 2021, for the SNP) they won massive victories with an implausibly broad coalition of voters focused around a key issue. For the Tories it was Brexit, for the SNP it was…
The optics are horrible on this for Sunak and Braverman, their opponents are already making political capital of this about their being one rule for the Tories and everybody else. The Sunday Times report that [A] senior Conservative MP with knowledge of the controversy said they believed Braverman’s actions breached the seven Nolan principles of public life, including the requirement to be accountable, open and honest. They also suggested that, as the cabinet minister in charge of law enforcement, Braverman’s…
The above is the detailed data from this week’s YouGov poll which I show to highlight a big problem for Labour – although the Tory share is right down only a relatively small proportion of GE2019 CON voters have made the switch to Starmer’s party. The top table is restricted just to those who recorded a voting intention while the bottom one includes as well the responses of those sampled without saying which party they will back As can be…
The third favourite for the 2024 White House Race and the second favorite for the Republican nomination is the current controversial governor of Florida Ron Desantis. He’s been making the headlines right across the US over the past year or so with his aggressive anti-woke agenda which amongst other things seeks to interfere with the way various subjects are taught in educational institutions. The essence of his message is a far-right cultural agenda that casts restrictions on abortion rights, and LGBTQ people …