The above is the detailed data from this week’s YouGov poll which I show to highlight a big problem for Labour – although the Tory share is right down only a relatively small proportion of GE2019 CON voters have made the switch to Starmer’s party. The top table is restricted just to those who recorded a voting intention while the bottom one includes as well the responses of those sampled without saying which party they will back As can be…
The third favourite for the 2024 White House Race and the second favorite for the Republican nomination is the current controversial governor of Florida Ron Desantis. He’s been making the headlines right across the US over the past year or so with his aggressive anti-woke agenda which amongst other things seeks to interfere with the way various subjects are taught in educational institutions. The essence of his message is a far-right cultural agenda that casts restrictions on abortion rights, and LGBTQ people …
The great challenge facing Sunak at the general election is that unlike Labour he’s needs to ensure that his party secures a clear majority to be certain of staying in the job. At the moment it is very difficult seeing how Sunak can avoid the 47 seat losses that will put being in Downing Street for another term out reach. In many ways what happened last time was artificial because of the way that Jeremy Corbyn was seen by the…
As I write Donald Trump is currently rated on Betfair as having a 66% chance of being the Republican Party nominee for the 2024 White House race when he will be 78 years old. While I think he is a strong favourite I am not convinced he has a 65% chance which is how bets should be assessed. We are more than six months away from the first primary and don’t underestimate the media’s desire to want a story about…
A big part of this, surely, reflects tiredness with the Tory party which has been in government since May 2010 and will be there to 2023 or beyond – a period in which it has gone through FIVE different leaders and PMs. Change is in the air and it is very difficult to see where Sunak goes from here. Expect to see more tensions in the run-up to a general election when maybe 100+ Tory MPs could lose their seats….
TheTimes is reporting that the Tories could be facing three by-election defences as a result of Johnson’s resignation honours in which he is nominating the current incumbents in the seats above for the House of Lords. We had known about Dorries and Mid-Bedfordshire for some time. The former PM had been hoping that the elevations to the Lords should take place just before the end of this parliament to avoid by-elections but that is not going to be possible. As…