The above is the detailed data from this week’s YouGov poll which I show to highlight a big problem for Labour – although the Tory share is right down only a relatively small proportion of GE2019 CON voters have made the switch to Starmer’s party.
The top table is restricted just to those who recorded a voting intention while the bottom one includes as well the responses of those sampled without saying which party they will back As can be seen in the second chart just 45% of those who voted for what was Johnson’s party in 2019 say they will do so next time. Of the balance, only 11% have gone to LAB with 10% to Reform and 5% to the LDs.
My guess is that a significant proportion of those GE2019 Tories not expressing a voting intention will in fact end up with Sunak’s party. I also think a fair slab of the 10% currently saying Reform will do the same.
The detail is very similar to other pollsters. The big message for Starmer is that he’s not making enough ex-CON voter converts.