Why I’m betting that Trump won’t be the WH2024 nominee

Why I’m betting that Trump won’t be the WH2024 nominee

As I write Donald Trump is currently rated on Betfair as having a 66% chance of being the Republican Party nominee for the 2024 White House race when he will be 78 years old. While I think he is a strong favourite I am not convinced he has a 65% chance which is how bets should be assessed.

We are more than six months away from the first primary and don’t underestimate the media’s desire to want a story about the nomination race that is going to attract attention.

Don’t put too much reliance on early polls which are generally about name recognition rather than expressions of real choice. When Republican voters are asked to name their choice then inevitably Trump’s name is the only one that comes to mind. It only requires a good showing by an alternative in one of the early primaries and suddenly the whole race could be looked at differently.

Also the drip-by-strip reporting of Trump’s many legal problems is going to be an encouragement for alternatives to come forward and GOP funders to question whether he is the one to back.

Laying Trump at the current betting exchange odds is good value.

Mike Smithson

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