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Talkin’ ’bout my generation

25/4/2009 Editor

How many U30s will make it into the Commons next time? I’ve been following the selection process for a Labour candidate in the safe seat of Erith & Thamesmead with some interest for the last couple of weeks. For those unfamiliar, there are eight candidates (all female) competing, and the battle-lines have been drawn between the union-supported candidate (Rachel Maskell) who has the backing of Charlie Whelan, and Georgia Gould, the daughter of Lord Gould (Phillip) who was the pollster…

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Is Hammond being lined up as Tory chancellor?

24/4/2009 Mike Smithson

Would he be a better face for the coming spending cuts? This afternoon I reinvested a small part of my budget winnings with two bets on the post of chancellor. The wagers are linked and both offer, I believe, good value for money. My first was to take the 9/2 from William Hill Politics that Alastair Darling will be replaced as chancellor during 2009. These seem great odds and, effectively, also give you coverage should there, indeed, be a 2009…

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Could this be Labour’s best hope?

24/4/2009 Mike Smithson

Ipsos-MORI Will party ratings move in line with economic optimism? This is the latest Economic Optimism Index from MORI which, as can be seen, has very much turned round and this month reached just -2%. This is the best since Mr Brown become prime minister and perhaps from the Labour perspective is the best indicator that they might just be in with a shout. The index is taken by subtracting the negative number from the positive one and the results…

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Remember the sea-change suggested by YouGov last year?

24/4/2009 Mike Smithson

UKPollingReport 2008 polls Could we see the same during this election year? Remember the last post-Budget YouGov poll in March 2008? It was so out of line with other surveys at the time that the term “rogue” was used to describe 23 times on the PB thread that night. The immediate conclusion of one of the site’s regular statistician contributors was “.…YouGov has to be treated as a rogue for the moment.. I suspect the true position is still something…

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Labour drops 7 points with YouGov

23/4/2009 Mike Smithson

CON 45(+4) LAB 27(-7) LD 18(+2) How will Brown Central deal with this? The first full voting intention poll since the budget is out and it’s from YouGov for the Telegraph. The numbers show a sharp reverse from the last published YouGov survey which was taken immediately after the G20 meeting and raised hopes at Brown Central because it only had a 7 point deficit. Unlike the paper which is reporting comparisons with its last poll I am following the…

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How valid are “quickie” post-budget polls?

23/4/2009 Mike Smithson

Politicalbetting.com – Thursday evening after the 2008 budget Will the first polls be as wrong as they were a year ago? The above is from the post published here about a Populus poll for the Times on the Thursday evening after Darling’s first budget in March 2008. The small sample survey was broadly supportive yet within only a few days Labour started its dramatic polling decline that went on until the banking bail-out in the autumn. Tonight we have a…

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PoliticsHome predicting 20 point Tory leads

23/4/2009 Mike Smithson

PoliticsHome Mixed news for ministers from the online survey The first post-budget poll is out from the non-BPC registered PoliticsHome which carried out an online survey starting yesterday afternoon. We know that voting intention questions were asked because PH breaks down its responses into party groupings but no numbers are being issued. The closest we get is a statement that “..PoliticsHome is able to predict that the Tories will enjoy a significant bounce overall, and will likely be returned to…

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PB’s “Money Says Index”: CON Maj 58 (-3)

23/4/2009 Mike Smithson

Will this be moved by the weekend polls? We last covered PB’s “The Money Says Index” on Monday when it had reached what was a record high for the Tories. This is a projection of the general election outcome based on what is going on in the commons seats betting markets – the spreads from Sporting Index and ExtraBet (formerly IG) and the new Betfair Line commons seat line market. One of the reasons for the shift has been that…

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