Poll: Just 4% of Labour voters would back Harriet

Poll: Just 4% of Labour voters would back Harriet

Polling update The first full post-budget voting intention survey is not likely before Friday at the earliest – and I would expect it to be from YouGov in the Daily Telegraph. ComRes should be due at the weekend and we might also see one other survey. Meanwhile it’s now been confirmed that the Sunday Telegraph’s poll by the ICM group company Marketing Sciences was carried out in precisely the same manner as other ICM voting intention polls. The wording of…

Read More Read More

So what did we think of that?

So what did we think of that?

Will the initial reaction be the one that sticks? One thing we have learned since 1997 is that the reaction on the day of the budgets themselves is usually a lot more positive than how it’s viewed by the weekend. I thought Darling delivered it well and Cameron’s spirited response was effective. Clegg was OK too. But the government needed this to be a game-changer and I’m not sure that it is. The 50% tax rate will certainly put the…

Read More Read More

Is life for Dave about to get far far tougher?

Is life for Dave about to get far far tougher?

Picture credit:Steve Black Will the budget set new dividing lines? As we look forward to the budget there’s an interesting post by Ben Brogan – who’s just moved from the Mail to the Daily Telegraph. He writes: “My bones tell me that the Budget is going to lay out some epic dividing lines on the taxation of wealth and aspiration that will make 45p look tame. Maybe this talk of Lloyd George has spooked me, but I fear we are…

Read More Read More

Is Gord’s expense plan going to make it worse?

Is Gord’s expense plan going to make it worse?

Will he regret not consulting first? I have a very cynical view of allowances and payments to elected politicians. When I became a county councillor twenty years ago we got a minimal basic amount but for every half day meeting we attended there was a £9.50 to be pocketed which was doubled plus a meal allowance if it went on after lunch. The result was that there was an incentive for meetings to to be prolonged. This was, of course,…

Read More Read More

Is it worth 7/1 that Darling will say “Sorry”?

Is it worth 7/1 that Darling will say “Sorry”?

Does the budget offer the chance of making a few quid? Tomorrow is budget day which has in recent years developed into a great political betting occasion. For some reason the bookies put a lot of interesting markets and smart punters can sometimes do very well. I like the markets on the words and phrases that Darling might say. the reason – well you can can do a quick computer scan on previous Darling speeches and find out whether he…

Read More Read More

How Dave & Gord compare with predecessors

How Dave & Gord compare with predecessors

The above charts are from an interesting presentation I was at this morning by Ipsos-MORI which has been carrying out political polls in the UK for longer than any other firm and has a wealth of historical data. The two charts above seek to track the net approval ratings of Brown and Cameron and to put them in a historical context. The top one shows, month by month, how Brown compares with John Major while the bottom one has Cameron…

Read More Read More

New MORI puts Lib Dems up 8 points

New MORI puts Lib Dems up 8 points

CONSERVATIVES 41% (-1) LABOUR 28% (-4) LIB DEMS 22% (+8) Are Labour voters shifting towards Clegg over Smeargate? Further to the update on the previous thread, the Ipsos MORI Political Monitor for April gives the Conservatives a 13-point lead over Labour, but it is the closing of the gap between Labour and the Lib Dems (from 18-points to just 6) that is the dramatic headline of this poll. Nick Clegg hasn’t had the best of months if you listen to…

Read More Read More

Is “TrueLabour” right to worry about UNITE?

Is “TrueLabour” right to worry about UNITE?

Does the union have too much influence over the party? Somebody calling themselves “TrueLabour” posted this on LabourHome yesterday:- “If the Conservative party had a single donor called UnitePLC that provided 40% of its donations, provided the CEO of the Conservative party, had its Head of PR setup websites for the Conservatives, hired people like Derek McPoison to run smear campaigns, unfairly influenced the process whereby many of its UnitePLC employees become Conservative MPs through donations and Uniteplc block votes…

Read More Read More