The above charts are from an interesting presentation I was at this morning by Ipsos-MORI which has been carrying out political polls in the UK for longer than any other firm and has a wealth of historical data.
The two charts above seek to track the net approval ratings of Brown and Cameron and to put them in a historical context. The top one shows, month by month, how Brown compares with John Major while the bottom one has Cameron against previous Tory leaders and Tony Blair.
As can be seen Brown is doing a touch better than John Major was at this stage while Cameron is now matching Tony Blair and is doing much much better than Hague, IDS and Michael Howard.
For the timing in each case MORI have taken the point that people became leader or PM.
The one thing to note, of course, is that the firm changed its methodology in June 2008 and this might explain a bit of the numbers since then.
One thing I like about the pollster is that the form of the questions it uses has not changed.
Budget Betting – FREE MONEY ALERT
On the previous thread one or two posters pointed to the Sporting Index “How many sips of Water” will Darling take during his speech. The buy price on the spread is one. Meanwhile William Hill are offering 5/1 that he won’t sip any water at all during the speech.
So I’ve got Â£30 a sip on with SPIN. If I lose that bet I win the 5/1 Hills bet, on which I’ve got Â£25, that he won’t sip any water at all.