Just listen to Nick Robinson on his return from holiday Yesterday I suggested that the West Yorkshire seat of Morley & Outwood might be good for a speculative punt because this had the makings of being the sensation of election night – a bit like Michael Portillo’s defeat at the 1997 general election. This, of course, is the new seat that Ed Balls will be fighting and on the face of it there is a pretty solid Labour majority. But…
Sporting Index Spread Markets The market average: CON majority of 62 Today Politicalbetting’s projection for the general election based on what’s going on in the betting markets takes on a new dimension with the inclusion for the first time of Betfair’s new election line betting market. This was launched last week and involves punters entering into bets at evens on whether the parties will get more or less than the stated numbers. The great thing about this new type of…
BBC News …but will it be a two-thirds majority? As Alistair Darling rises in the Commons for the Budget speech, thousands of miles away voters will be casting their ballots in South Africa’s fourth national election since the end of apartheid, with provincial elections also taking place on the same day. For the first time since that historic 1994 election, the ANC, on paper at least, finds itself facing a serious challenge – but as with football, it’s what happens…
General Election constituency betting Could the Morley seat be the “Portillo moment – 2010 version”? We can all, I’m sure, remember it well. In the days immediately after Tony Blair’s stunning landslide in May 1997 the moment everybody seemed to be talking about was the result from Enfield and Southgate where Michael Portillo’s shattering and unexpected defeat seemed to epitomise the whole election and the total collapse of the Tories. For Labour’s performance there was absolutely staggering and went way…
Will Labour aim to gain the initiative by steering for Clear Red Water? Amid the carnage of dreadful Sunday newspapers, two opinion polls giving the Conservatives leads sufficient to produce a landslide if reproduced at a general election (see previous threads), the continued rumblings of smeargate dragging Ed Balls and Labour General Secretary Ray Collins into the scandal, and the criticisms of former MP Alice Mahon, one would imagine that some thought must be being given in Downing Street to…
Times online As well as the Telegraph poll reported on the previous thread there’s another poll tonight – from the unregistered BPIX in the Mail on Sunday This has the Tories on 45% to Labour’s 26% with no figure for the LDs reported. I don’t usually have much time for BPIX because it’s not part of the British Polling Council and doesn’t make its detailed data available. Away from the polling are two further potentially explosive stories for Labour in…
CON 43 (-1) LAB 26 (-5) LD 21 (+3) Will the Sunday Telegraph survey give Cameron a boost A new survey by an ICM associated company for the Sunday Telegraph reports a sharp reverse for Labour after its terrible week. I’ve assumed that the methodology has followed the standard ICM format and my comparisons above are with the last poll from the firm. This is the second lowest Labour share ever from the polling group and the only consolation for…
What impact will piracy have this century? This has been a fortnight in which piracy has seen more news coverage than at any time since Blackbeard. Sadly, for all the romance of the name, piracy is no longer the wooden-legged, eye-patched, be-parroted world of Captain Hook and Long John Silver. In the 21st century, a ‘pirate’ will tend to belong to one of two distinct species: pirata mogadisciensis and pirata suionese (sometimes known as pirata cyberspacensis) The former can be…