PoliticsHome predicting 20 point Tory leads

PoliticsHome predicting 20 point Tory leads


Mixed news for ministers from the online survey

The first post-budget poll is out from the non-BPC registered PoliticsHome which carried out an online survey starting yesterday afternoon.

We know that voting intention questions were asked because PH breaks down its responses into party groupings but no numbers are being issued. The closest we get is a statement that “..PoliticsHome is able to predict that the Tories will enjoy a significant bounce overall, and will likely be returned to the 20 point plus leads that they enjoyed in the summer of last year.”

I can only assume that that is based on the unpublished findings from the poll.

One striking feature is that ..”the public overwhelmingly do not believe the economic forecasts made by the Chancellor yesterday. 53% outright do not believe them, 31% partly believe them: a staggeringly small 9% have full faith in the Chancellor’s economic predictions”. This is not really surprising given the media focus in the past 24 hours.

On the broad measures themselves the poll seems to suggest that “58% concluded that it was either a mixed bag or more right than wrong” – which is good news for ministers.

Until PoliticsHome becomes a proper pollster and part of the British Polling Council we cannot give its numbers the same credence as those from the established firms.

It’s possible that we might see a YouGov poll overnight and I’m hoping for a ComRes survey on Saturday evening.

UPDATE: There will be NO ComRes poll this weekend.

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