Will the first polls be as wrong as they were a year ago?
The above is from the post published here about a Populus poll for the Times on the Thursday evening after Darling’s first budget in March 2008. The small sample survey was broadly supportive yet within only a few days Labour started its dramatic polling decline that went on until the banking bail-out in the autumn.
Tonight we have a similar poll in the Times which shows, on the 2008 model, similar broad support for the proposals – but how will this look in a few days?
The instant reaction a year ago proved to be almost the exact opposite of how the public felt a few days later. Could that happen with tonight’s Populus and PoliticsHome surveys?
I contend, that we have no real idea how the public will react. It might be more positive for the government or it might be a whole lot less positive. For the media coverage on budget days themselves is generally pro-government and polling respondees answer questions accordingly.
Let us wait until we have a more considered response.
Would not it have been far better if the Times and PoliticsHome had waited or saved their money?
POLLING UPDATE: There will be NO ComRes poll this weekend.