Will party ratings move in line with economic optimism?
This is the latest Economic Optimism Index from MORI which, as can be seen, has very much turned round and this month reached just -2%. This is the best since Mr Brown become prime minister and perhaps from the Labour perspective is the best indicator that they might just be in with a shout.
The index is taken by subtracting the negative number from the positive one and the results since 2004 are plotted on the chart.
There was a theory some months ago that the trends on this chart would be mirrored during the following weeks in the opinion polls. Thus the peak of negative numbers last year coincided with Labour worst ratings in decades. If that still holds good then Brown Central might see a bit of a bounce.
But will it? It is hard to predict anything other than gloom for Labour in the current climate and it could be that a sea change of opinion has taken place.
So the theory might be amended so that in the absence of other negatives then an increase in economic optimism is good for the government while a decline is bad for the government in all circumstances. We shall see.