BBC What this going to do to the leadership betting? A couple of month ago I started ploughing money on the post-December 31 2010 option in the Brown exit date betting after the PM had made comments similar to his interview on Woman’s Hour this morning. Even if he’s defeated and Cameron has a majority it’s seems clear to me that he is not going to give up the job he strove after for so long. So what’s this going…
Betfair Politics What will it take to make NOM the favourite? The latest price from Ladbrokes on the election ending with no party having an overall majority has moved over the past seven days from 7/4 to 13/8. Thus the profit from a £100 winning bet would be £162.50 today rather than the £175 of last Monday. So there has been a tightening but not by very much. On the Betfair overall majority market the NOM of a week ago…
Wikimedia Commons © Glenn Francis, www.PacificProDigital.com Netherlands heads list of international elections this spring With Viktor Yanukovych now inaugurated as President of Ukraine (and Tymoshenko departing as PM to boot), Sebastian Piñera taking the reins of an earthquake-ravaged Chile, and Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts continuing to impact on the push to pass healthcare, the winter elections are firmly put to bed, and it’s time to look ahead to the traditionally busy spring season. Even from an international perspective, the…
ICM: Oct 8 2009 CON 2009 LAB 2009 LD 2009 Voted CON in 2005 94% 0% 2% Voted LAB in 2005 20% 62% 11% Voted LD in 2005 14% 12% 68% ICM: March 11 2010 CON 2010 LAB 2010 LD 2010 Voted CON in 2005 88% 2% 6% Voted LAB in 2005 15% 70% 9% Voted LD in 2005 10% 7% 75% Does this tell the story of the squeeze in the polls? One of the great polling innovations since…
Gallup polls 1970 CON LAB LIB January 48% 41% 7% February 48% 41% 9% March 46% 41% 9% April 47% 42% 7% May 42% 49% 7% June 42% 49% 7% Election: June 18th 46.2% 43.8% 7.6% Can the blues take comfort from Heath’s 1970 victory? Just look at the table showing the Gallup polls in 1970 in the six months ahead of the general election. Look in particular at how Heath’s Conservatives were well ahead until the May-June period when…
YOUGOV YouGov daily poll (Sunday Times) Mar 12 Mar 11 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 33% 34% LIB DEMS 17% 17% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 3% But it’s all margin of error changes Sky News is reporting the figures for Labour and the Tories from the latest YouGov daily poll for the Sunday Times. As can be seen the only change is that Labour are down a point – all margin of error stuff just like ICM. We…
ICM Sunday Telegraph Mar 11 Mar 4 CONSERVATIVES 38% 40% LABOUR 31% 31% LIB DEMS 21% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 6% But it’s Clegg’s party not Labour that benefits The first of tonight’s polls, ICM for the Telegraph, provides a real boost for the Lib Dems who are gathered in Birmingham for their Spring conference. The 21% shares is only 1.7% down on what they achieved last time and must give them real hopes of hanging…
Wikipedia Could 1950 be a good precedent for Labour? As we count down to the 2010 election I’ve been trawling through the numbers from elections long past to see if there are any lessons for today. And the one that Labour might take heart from is 1950 when Clem Attlee’s then party had had a bad period in the polls with deficits of up to six points in the year beforehand. This was turned round in the final months so…