Has Clegg put Cameron on pole position?

Has Clegg put Cameron on pole position?

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What should we make of his “mandate” comment? It’s unusual for the Lib Dems to get drawn into discussions about possible election results and what they’d do in a hung parliament. There are no easy answers and all scenarios tend to lead the discussion towards Labour and the Conservatives rather than the Lib Dems. So Clegg’s comments yesterday on GMTV form a very interesting position. He said:If a party has got more support and has got a clearer mandate from…

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Will you be there at Dirty Dicks?

Will you be there at Dirty Dicks?

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Eve of election PB gathering – March 31st 6.30pm Thanks again to Fat Steve for organising this but we are having a pre-election informal get-together at the historic Dirty Dicks pub opposite the main entrance to Liverpool Street station. The time and date: 6.30 pm Wednesday March 31st. Following the points raised last time about the ventilation we will be in a different part of the pub. There’s no need to register but it would help if those that want…

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Could this impact on the general election?

Could this impact on the general election?

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Could it open up the UNITE-Labour link? Any big development that could affect large numbers of people in such a politically potent period as this has to be looked at in terms of how it could impact on voting in the election. At the very minimum the action could dominate the news media in the weeks before the vote. On top of that it could give the Tories the peg to open up what I think is a highly dangerous…

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YouGov vs AR: Is it all down to the weightings?

YouGov vs AR: Is it all down to the weightings?

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YouGov Angus Reid When you get two polls, apparently so far apart as YouGov and Angus Reid, it’s very hard to come up with an explanation except by digging deep into the the data. Fortunately we got all the Angus Reid data from the latest poll within hours of its publication. The weighting data is here while the details cross-tabs are here. The YouGov information should be available this morning but for comparison purposes I’ve used the weighting statement form…

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But PB/Angus Reid has the gap widening to 13 points

But PB/Angus Reid has the gap widening to 13 points

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Angus Reid for Politicalbetting Mar 11 Feb 19 CONSERVATIVES 39% 38% LABOUR 26% 26% LIB DEMS 18% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 8% 7.5% So why the difference between the two online pollsters? Here’s the second poll of the night – the exclusive Angus Reid one for Politicalbetting – which is showing a radically different picture than YouGov a few minutes ago. On the face of it this is odd – for both operate on-line confining their polling…

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Labour gets two points closer in the daily poll

Labour gets two points closer in the daily poll

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YouGov poll (The Sun) Mar 11 Mar 10 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 34% 32% LIB DEMS 17% 17% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3% 4% Within the MOE – but will it affect the narrative ? So here it is – tonight’s daily poll which was not as falsely reported by a commenter earlier in the evening. This might give some comfort to Labour but I guess that all parties will want to see this sort of move supported…

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A special cartoon by Marf

A special cartoon by Marf

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Yet more polls on the way! Marf, PB’s cartoonist, has been totally tied up for months in a big project but she’s still keen to maintain her links with PB. The above drawing was done for the site’s 5th birthday last year and hasn’t been published before. So as we wait for tonight’s polling news I thought I’d give it a show now. Marf’s work can be found here. Don’t forget to take part in the PB survey. All views…

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Forget voting intention: What about the country’s “mood”?

Forget voting intention: What about the country’s “mood”?

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Research by Dr Jane Green and Dr Will Jennings, Manchester University A new measure by researchers at the University of Manchester shows a significant problem for Gordon Brown: the mood of the country is against Labour on policy competence. It is as serious for Gordon Brown as it was for the Conservatives before Labour’s landslide victory in 1997. The current decline against Labour is precipitous. Green and Jennings argue that it is important to study the public mood across a…

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