Why aren’t the polls convincing punters?

Why aren’t the polls convincing punters?

What will it take to make NOM the favourite?

The latest price from Ladbrokes on the election ending with no party having an overall majority has moved over the past seven days from 7/4 to 13/8. Thus the profit from a £100 winning bet would be £162.50 today rather than the £175 of last Monday.

So there has been a tightening but not by very much.

On the Betfair overall majority market the NOM of a week ago of 1.9/1 has shifted to just 1.82/1 – again not very much movement and with the betting exchange you have to factor in the 5% commission as well.

Yet this has been a period when 13 of the last 14 opinion polls have reported figures that the straight UNS seat calculations suggest would produce such an outcome.

Punters are simply not believing a combination of the media narrative/the polls/the UNS seat calculators

My reading is that the markets will start to take this seriously when ICM has consecutive surveys with the lead at six points or below. As it is yesterday’s poll from the firm had this at 7% after the spiral of silence adjustment had trimmed it from 39-30.

The only polls coming in at under seven have been from YouGov or YouGov/BPIX.

Mike Smithson

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