YOUGOV

YouGov daily poll (Sunday Times)	Mar 12	Mar 11
CONSERVATIVES	37%	37%
LABOUR	33%	34%
LIB DEMS	17%	17%
LAB to CON swing from 2005	3.5%	3%

But it’s all margin of error changes

Sky News is reporting the figures for Labour and the Tories from the latest YouGov daily poll for the Sunday Times. As can be seen the only change is that Labour are down a point – all margin of error stuff just like ICM.

We haven’t got the Lib Dem figure which could be interesting given the change picked up by the ICM poll earlier. UPDATE 2030: Sky News now reporting that it is 17% so a very big gap compared with ICM.

My view remains that the YouGov weighting structure is down playing the Lib Dems to the benefit of Labour as was set out in this post on Friday.

The blues will be relieved that the gap is up a notch but that’s not much comfort.

I’m not aware of any other polls tonight. There was talk of a ComRes but I usually get an embargoed copy and that hasn’t happened.

Sorry about the confusion again tonight. Unlike the YouGov Sun daily poll I am not being sent any figures directly so I’m having to rely on what’s reported elsewhere and these have been changing. The difference is almost immaterial but it does not add confidence.

Mike Smithson