Opening polls 1997 CON LAB LD OTH LEAD Gallup March 21 27% 56% 11% 6% 29% MORI March 24 29% 50% 14% 7% 21% Harris Mar 24 28% 56% 10% 6% 28% ICM Mar 31 31% 45% 18% 6% 14% MORI Apr 1 28% 55% 11% 6% 27% Actual result May 1 1997 31.4 44.4 17.2 7 13 What was happening before the last change of government
Could the widening gap be giving him second thoughts? If indeed, as is being widely reported, Mr. Brown makes that short car journey from Downing Street to Buckingham Palace on Tuesday morning then it will be a situation almost without precedent. For never before in modern times has a PM with a working majority had to make a decision on an election date when his party had double digit deficits in the polls. John Major was in a worse polling…
YG daily poll: Sunday Times Apr 3 Apr 1 CONSERVATIVES 39% 39% LABOUR 29% 31% LIB DEMS 20% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6.5% 5.5% Another pollster has Brown’s party in the 20s According to SkyNews the YouGov daily poll for the Sunday Times is now out and has Labour at its lowest level from the firm since December 17th 2009. The figures are almost in line with the 38-27-20 that we had an hour or so ago…
Angus Reid for Sunday Express Apr 3 Mar 31 CONSERVATIVES 38% 37% LABOUR 27% 28% LIB DEMS 20% 22% LAB to CON swing from 2005 7% 6% The first Sunday Express/AR poll A new Angus Reid poll tonight for the Sunday Express has the Tories moving up with Labour and the Lib Dems moving down. The gap is now 11 points. The changes are with the AR poll for PB last Wednesday and are only the second to be based…
Should you bet on him becoming Sir Anthony? In something of a novelty market from William Hill, they’re asking whether Blair will get a knighthood during 2010. As they put it, Former Prime Minister Tony Blair is campaigning for Labour again and as a result William Hill are offering 10/1 that he will be knighted this year. Is that worth taking? I don’t accept Hill’s thinking – I don’t believe for a moment Blair is campaigning because he thinks there…
..or is featuring Cameron an own goal? This is Labour’s latest ad – the much-hyped one that was designed by a 24 year old supporter from St. Albans. I don’t think that people will immediately get it. Those who were adults at the start of the 80s are now in their fifties and is there a widespread sense that the decade was an awful one for the country in the way that poster tries to suggest? But the mega-mistake is…
Could it all be over by the Summer? The problem with party leadership markets is that the timescales are so uncertain. If Gordon Brown serves as long as Tony Blair did as Labour leader, he’ll be there for another ten years. Alternatively, Brown’s successor could be in place by the Summer holidays. With all the attention on the General Election, perhaps now might be a good time to look to a relatively forgotten market that could soon become very live….
Who, for instance, does it want you to vote for? This is the latest “squeeze” post-card that’s gone out by mail to potential LD voters in key marginals, apparently from Labour. The interesting thing is that it does not mention the name of the party anywhere. All we have is information about the alleged consequences of voting Lib Dem. It’s also based on the false assumption that all Lib Dem supporters will naturally fall in line behind Labour when the…