So we are off?
Ladbrokes prediction – a Tory majority of eight Mike Smithson
Will it be older voters that finally do for Mr. Brown?
Message from Robert: I will be doing some minor site maintenance today ahead of the expected announcement this afternoon. Hopefully there won’t be any downtime. But, if there is, you know who to blame. Brand Democracy/YG Mar 19 CON LAB LD OTH 45-54 year olds 32% 38% 17% 13% 55-64 year old 39% 27% 19% 15% All 55 and over 46% 24% 16% 14% All 65 and over 49% 23% 15% 13% All 18+ 37% 31% 19% 13% The over…
But YouGov has the Tories back in the 40s
YG daily poll: The Sun Apr 5 Apr 2 CONSERVATIVES 41% 39% LABOUR 31% 29% LIB DEMS 18% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6% 6.5% What do we make of the conflicting figures? So there we have it – the YouGov daily poll where the fieldwork finished this evening showing very different numbers from the Guardian/ICM poll earlier with the margin down to just four points. But like ICM the Labour share has increased with YouGov – so…
But Opinium has Labour still in the 20s
Opinium (Daily Express) Apr 5 Mar 29 CONSERVATIVES 39% 38% LABOUR 29% 28% LIB DEMS 17% 16% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6.5% 6.5% And the Tories move up one to 39 A second poll is just out, from new kid on the block Opinium, and this has the gap between the blues and the reds still at ten points although both move up one. I don’t have the Lib Dem figure yet. The firm is a new pollster…
Labour close the gap to four points with ICM
ICM – Guardian Apr 4 Mar 31 CONSERVATIVES 37% 38% LABOUR 33% 29% LIB DEMS 21% 23% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 6% Could this mean that the red team will get most seats? There’s a new ICM poll for the Guardian just out where the fieldwork was carried out over the holiday weekend. The numbers, with changes on last week’s Guardian/ICM poll show a sharp increase in the Labour numbers to the point where it’s [possible that…
What about this one?
Should they be taking the focus off Brown? Posters are coming out at such a rate at the moment that it’s hard to keep up. This one from the Tories is trying to build on the perceived advantage from last week over the NI tax move. It’s theme is very much the same as the famous 1992 “Double Whammy” poster that was said to have been so successful. I’m not totally convinced of the visual portrayal. To me it’s good…
Is this the message Labour should be putting over?
Does Marf’s cartoon hit the nail on the head? In all the discussion over Labour’s “Gene Hunt” poster everybody seems to have by-passed what the party’s core message ought to be – the need to counter the desire for something different that polling suggests is what getting on for two-thirds of voters want. For as has been said so often there are only two big ideas in election battles – either it is “time for change” or “don’t let the…
The Sunday night round-up
This is a new feature and will run every Sunday night up until polling day, to include the last set of figures from each pollster, as well as the current seat spreads from the betting markets. There probably won’t be any articles on international politics over the next few weeks, but to ensure that it retains a toehold on PB even during the UK campaign, this slot will continue to feature international snippets. The pollsters Last poll from each pollster…