ICM Guardian May 24 May 13 CONSERVATIVES 39% 38% LABOUR 32% 33% LIB DEMS 21% 21%  Lib Dems lose a little but Coalition steady at 60% In the first major post-GE poll with voting intention carried out by ICM for The Guardian, there are small increases in the Conservative and Labour shares, while the Lib Dems and Others are down – though all movements are within marginal of error (if towards the outer edges of it). The figures are also…
Oona’s website Price moves in from 33/1 to 12/1 There’s been a big move on the 2012 London mayoral race betting following the announcement by former Bethnal Green & Bow MP, Oona King, that she’s seeking the Labour nomination. Overnight I got 33/1 against here winning the mayoralty with Victor Chandler – that’s now tightened to 10/1 though Ladbrokes have her at 12/1. Five years ago, of course, Oona lost her Westminster seat to George Galloway in a fierce campaign….
BBC News Is this big challenge for Osborne/Laws? With public spending cut-backs going to dominate the political scene for the foreseeable future it was inevitable that the the George/David coalition du0 made a strong point of blaming Labour. Liam Byrne’s joke letter to David Laws was an absolute gift and is being used by politicians and the media alike. For the longer the coalition can go on holding the outgoing government responsible then the easier it will be politically. But…
Rank Pollster CON LAB LD Error 1 RNB India: Phone 37 (+0.1) 28 (-1.7) 26 (+2.4) 4.2 2= ICM phone/past vote weighted 36 (-0.9) 28 (-1.7) 26 (+2.4) 5 2= Ipsos-MORI: phone 36 (-0.9) 29 (-0.7) 27 (+3.4) 5 4 Populus: phone/past vote weighted 37 (+0.1) 28 (-1.7) 27 (+3.4) 5.2 5 Harris: Online 35 (-1.9) 29 (-0.7) 27 (+3.4) 6 6 ComRes: phone/past vote weighted 37 (+0.1) 28 (-1.7) 28 (+4.4) 6.2 7 Opinium: online 35 (-1.9) 27 (-2.7)…
SportingIndex Is this a case of sell the Tories: buy the LDs & LAB? SportingIndex has put up an intriguing handicap market on the final seat to be resolved in the 2010 general election – Thirsk & Malton in North Yorkshire where the election had to be put back until this coming Thursday because of the death of one of the candidates. With a notional 2005 outcome of CON 25,702 (51.88%): LAB 11,585 (23.39%): LD 9,314 (18.80%) this is the…
Observer But is the former leader still influential? There’s been a sharp move to Ed Miilband overnight following the publication of today’s Observer which leads on the intervention by the former leader, Neil Kinnock, into the race. On the Betfair exchange the younger Miliband brother tightened from 4/1 to 3/1 on the news while there’s been an easing of the price on his brother, David, who remains the odds-on favourite. This follows earlier suggestions that the “other Ed”, Balls, might…
BBC Results 2010 Will an English leader bring the voters back? After looking at the challenge for the Tories in Scotland it’s also worth looking at parts of England where Labour took a terrible drubbing on May 6th. Just look at the South East – Brown’s party got a smaller share of the vote here, 16.2%, than the Tories got in Scotland. Even worse they lost thirteen of the 17 that they’d held and were left with just four –…
BBC results 2010 election What future for blues north of the border? In 2005, across the United Kingdom, the Conservatives won less than 200 seats; in 2010, they won more than 300. That increase of more than a hundred came entirely in England and Wales; the Scottish Conservatives returned just the one constituency, the same as in 2005. This poses David Cameron and his party several problems. The one of mandate is relatively easily answered, although none of the answers…