What’ll her presence do to the 2nd and 3rd prefs? John Rentoul, the Indy on Sunday’s columnist who is often said to be more Blairite than Blair, has taken up the cause of Mili-D in a big way. This is how he describes the ex-foreign sec’s move to provide a last minute nomination so that Diane Abbot could get on the ballot:- ..”What she will do, of course, is take votes away from the most left-wing of the other candidates…It…
Is Michael Ashcroft right to vent his spleen? According to the News of the World’s political editor, Ian Kirby, the Tory fundraiser who became the target of Labour attacks, Michael Ashcroft, is writing a book in which he’s hugely crititcal of the Tory general election campaign and David Cameron’s leadership. A particular focus is said to be “the decision to put David Cameron alongside Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg in the three TV debates.” Ashcroft is right about their impact…
YouGov – Labour leadership All voters Lab voters Public sector David Miliband 22 (-1) 38 (+4) 21 Diane Abbott 13 (+4) 9 (+2) 16 Ed Miliband 7 (-1) 11 (-2) 9 Ed Balls 5 (-1) 8 (-2) 7 Andy Burnham 4 (nc) 6 (+2) 6 But we need polling of the members and the unions The latest polling on public views of the Labour contests suggests that this is still about name recognition though the Abbott camp will be pleased…
Is it time to stop feather-bedding the oldies? Remember the dramatic month of September 2007. Big new public spending announcement were being made by the day as the Brown government was preparing the ground for an autumn general election. One of those bribes was, for the over-60s in England, the national bus pass scheme which allows free travel anywhere in the country on local services. It’s great – I love it. Not only does it give me free travel near…
Is Osborne playing double-or-nothing on England? New Labour, when it was new, had its Grid: a careful plan of big national and international events around which those running the party would schedule their own campaign launches, policy announcements, events and so on. It worked very well at the time though it did help that it had a largely friendly media and opponents who were outclassed on that score and, for that matter, that Labour was in opposition (it’s always harder…
Is Labour’s election a pollster’s nightmare? With Labour leadership polls expected in the next few days it’s worth reminding ourselves that we should not pay too much attention, or risk too much cash, on findings so far ahead of the ballot. At this stage, three months before the ballots went out, in the 2005 Tory race the Betfair price on then shadow home secretary, David Davis had tightened to 0.47/1. YouGov polling had him emphatically beating David Cameron in a…
Will he take on the role of lightning conductor? There’s one recent election that I’ve not covered at all because the result, to my mind, was so much of a foregone conclusion – that of the selection by Lib Dems MPs of veteran Bermondsey MP, former London mayoral candidate and former party president, Simon Hughes, as deputy leader. He takes over from Vince Cable and will become the most senior member of the parliamentary party not to be a minister….
Guardian.co.uk My thoughts on the Labour race are in a Guardian piece this morning. In the betting I’m on all five and even though I’ve had a lot of speculative bets will make a good profit whoever does it. My best outcomes with the top price I backed at are Abbott (50/1) and Ed Balls (22/1). These are followed by EdM (20/1), Andy Burnham (16/1) and David Miliband who I got at 7/1 last October. My plan is to bet…