My thoughts on the Labour race are in a Guardian piece this morning.
In the betting I’m on all five and even though I’ve had a lot of speculative bets will make a good profit whoever does it. My best outcomes with the top price I backed at are Abbott (50/1) and Ed Balls (22/1). These are followed by EdM (20/1), Andy Burnham (16/1) and David Miliband who I got at 7/1 last October.
My plan is to bet more on David Miliband if his price moves out. The current best bookie price of 8/13 doesn’t offer any value.
Meanwhile Political Smarkets has opened three markets on who will come top in each section of the electoral college in the first round.
Trade Unions: Ed Balls is the 50% favourite which looks a good bet.
Party Members Here Andy Burnham is the 42% favourite which looks crazy to me.
MPs and MEPS Ed Miliband has moved in early trading to the favourite slots at 50% – again I think that’s crazy.
All these prices will change rapidly as punters focus on the race.