Is last night going to aid or hinder its survival? It’s the big question in British politics – how long will the coalition last? No doubt we’ll all have our own views which might have evolved following the revelations that came out in last night’s programme on what happened in those five days after the election. I am talking with one of the big spread betting firms about them establishing a “number of coalition weeks” market and have been asking…
YouGov – First round poll Candidate Members Unions MPs/MEPs Electoral College David Miliband 38 34 39 37 Ed Miliband 32 26 30 29 Diane Abbott 13 17 5 12 Andy Burnham 10 13 12 12 Ed Balls 7 11 14 11 So punters seem to have been getting this right The first YouGov poll members of those able to vote in the Labour leadership election, is just out and suggests that David Miliband is heading for victory. The older brother…
Was it his inaction that made the coalition possible? Lots of things are popping up ahead of tonight’s big programme on the BBC telling the story of how the coalition came about. The presenter, Nick Robinson, has a long piece in the Telegraph giving us a flavour of what to expect. “..The Tory leadership was well prepared for a hung parliament. They had analysed the overlaps and the gaps between the Conservative and Lib Dem manifestos so that a day…
Should Straw be careful about the “gerrymandering” charge? Every so often I find myself having to explain to non-election anoraks why it is that Labour can secure an overall majority with 2.7% more votes while the Tories need a margin of 11.2%. Generally their eyes glaze over as I talk about differential turnouts etc but the point they grasp instantly is that Labour-held seats have, on average, smaller electorates than Tory or LD-held ones. This is one of the things…
BBC programme info Will the programme change our view of the coalition? There’s an intriguing snippet on Nick Robinson’s BBC blog about his programme tomorrow night on how the coalition came about. “..The Tories have been keen to downplay how prepared they were for hung Parliament negotiations. However, on the day after the polls closed, Letwin appeared to know more about Lib Dem policy than any of Nick Clegg’s negotiators. The Tories arrived at talks with a string of policy…
Do more say they were Yellow than actually were? We all know the big story of the general election and the polls. When the votes were counted the 23.6% GB share that the Lib Dems chalked up was much smaller than all the pre-election polls. At one point YouGov had Clegg’s party with a four point lead on 34%. Yet eleven weeks on from May 6th an interesting trend has developed. When pollsters ask how people voted they invariably find…
Pollster/publication Date CON LAB LD YouGov/Sun 26/07/10 42 35 15 MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 ICM/Guardian 25/07/10 38 34 19 YouGov/Sun 21/07/10 44 35 13 ComRes/Independent 27/06/10 40 31 18 YouGov/Sunday Times 25/06/10 43 36 16 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 24/06/10 41 35 16 YouGov/Sun 24/06/10 43 34 17 Populus/Times 23/06/10 39 33 18 YouGov/Sun 23/06/10 42 34 17 YouGov/Sun 22/06/10 41 37 15 YouGov/Sun 21/06/10 41 33 18 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 20/06/10 39 31 19 ICM/Guardian 20/06/10 39 31 21 YouGov/Sunday Times 18/06/10…
Why I’m reducing my exposure on Ed There have been a few bits of news this week that have caused me to reconsider my betting position on Ed Miliband. Firstly there’s the campaign itself and the relentless and successful way that DaveM is pursuing the “front runner” strategy. He’s got more MPs and local parties and he also showed flair with the visit to Gillian Duffy which ended with him getting her backing. Secondly there was the argument by James…