Will 05/05/11 really be a disaster for the yellows?

Will 05/05/11 really be a disaster for the yellows?

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Is there a correlation between the national and the local? A crucial period for the coalition could be the days after next May’s local elections when there’ll be voting for many English councils, the Welsh Assembly, the Scottish Parliament as well as the planned referendum on the voting system. Already many commentators, including me, are projecting that the latter will produce a NO. But what about that the other elections – will the LDs really see widespread losses on the…

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Has David Miliband done a Jim Hacker?

Has David Miliband done a Jim Hacker?

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Is saving “British Pubs” like saving the “British Sausage”? We all, I’m sure, remember the great episode of “Yes Minister” when Jim Hacker sought to change the media narrative by launching a campaign to “save the British sausage”. I just wonder whether Labour leadership front-runner, David Miliband, has found his equivalent with a been a big campaign just launched to save Britain’s pubs which he says are closing at about 40 a week. Before the election, he notes, Labour’s Minister…

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What should be fair prices for the brothers?

What should be fair prices for the brothers?

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Betfair Politics Are the markets right after YouGov? Precisely one month to go before the ballot papers go out and my reading is that this is a 60-40 battle with the chances at the moment erring slightly more to Dave than to Ed. The YouGov poll was not quite decisive enough for David – a mood that seems to be prevailing on the betting markets. I’m not as convinced as some by the theory that Ed will scoop up the…

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YouGov have the Lib Dems at 12%

YouGov have the Lib Dems at 12%

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Pollster/publication Date CON LAB LD YouGov/Sun Times 30/07/10 42 38 12 YouGov/Sun 26/07/10 42 35 15 MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 ICM/Guardian 25/07/10 38 34 19 YouGov/Sun 21/07/10 44 35 13 ComRes/Independent 27/06/10 40 31 18 YouGov/Sunday Times 25/06/10 43 36 16 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 24/06/10 41 35 16 YouGov/Sun 24/06/10 43 34 17 Is this a reaction to the Robinson programme? The latest daily poll from the YouGov panel has the Lib Dems down to one of their lowest shares…

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Why are the Guardian and the Telegraph the biggest losers?

Why are the Guardian and the Telegraph the biggest losers?

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Newspaper June figures Year on change (%) Daily Telegraph 681,322 -18.45 The Guardian 286,220 -14.82 The Times 503,642 -14.77 Daily Express 664,293 -8.94 Daily Star 809,992 -6.95 The Independent 187,135 -6.62 Daily Mirror 1,248,919 -6.12 Daily Mail 2,092,643 -4.93 Financial Times  391,865 -4.88 The Sun 2,979,999 -1.6 Is the coalition impacting on newspaper readership? Above are the June newspaper circulations figures and again we see the continued erosion in sales at the so called “quality end” of the market. This…

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Is a foreign policy revolution taking place?

Is a foreign policy revolution taking place?

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Do Dave’s trips indicate a big change of emphasis? July’s been a busy month for David Cameron on the foreign affairs front with visits to the United States, Turkey and most recently, India. In all three, he’s been effusive towards his hosts and strongly positive about relations between Britain and the countries he’s been in. That’s all par for the course in diplomacy. What’s much less so is the strength of his criticism directed elsewhere: implicitly towards France and Germany…

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Polling Labour’s leadership election

Polling Labour’s leadership election

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Candidate Unions actual Unions YouGov Members actual Members YouGov Cruddas 27.27% 15% 13.89% 12% Harman 13,05% 16% 19.62% 17% Johnson 13.65% 26% 24.24% 24% Benn 14.79% 22% 12.81% 24% Hain 19.92% 15% 14.43% 13% Blears 11.31% 7% 14.97% 9% YouGov in the 2007 Deputy race The above shows the YouGov projections and the actual first round shares in the final YouGov poll before the 2007 Labour deputy race. As can be seen the big variance was in the union section…

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Punters pile on Mili-D after YouGov?

Punters pile on Mili-D after YouGov?

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But could the race still produce a surprise? It was inevitable that the first opinion surveys restricted to those who can actually vote in Labour’s election was going to spark off a fair amount of activity on the betting markets. The big move has been to the elder Miliband where the best bookie price is now 1/2. His brother Ed has moved out to 7/4 while Balls/Burnham/Abbott are now seen an rank outsiders with almost no chance whatsoever. On Betfair…

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