Are the markets right after YouGov?
Precisely one month to go before the ballot papers go out and my reading is that this is a 60-40 battle with the chances at the moment erring slightly more to Dave than to Ed.
The YouGov poll was not quite decisive enough for David – a mood that seems to be prevailing on the betting markets.
I’m not as convinced as some by the theory that Ed will scoop up the non-Mili second preferences. The poll showed that EM was leading by 3-2 here but the effect could be dilluted by the numbers of members who only select a first-class choice.
The big question remains the trade union section and how much regard we should have for the poll numbers. I think Ed will do better here than the poll.
So this is a 60-40 and there’s lots of time for “events”