YouGov – First round poll
So punters seem to have been getting this right
The first YouGov poll members of those able to vote in the Labour leadership election, is just out and suggests that David Miliband is heading for victory.
The older brother is leading in all three sections of the electoral college on the first round and the firm projects that in the final round of counting Dave will beat Ed by a 54-46 margin.
Full details are here.
This is big news and should reinforce the betting.
Further reflections I think that this is a brilliant poll for DM and the scale of the challenge facing EM with lower preferences is enormous.
DM is on 37% after the first round and an overall 35% put a non-Miliband in first place. So DM just needs 13/35ths of the balance in lower preferences while his brother needs 22/35ths.
But we know that in this form of election a significant chunk of voters ONLY name their number one choice – thus requiring an even great proportion of the Abbott/Burnham/Balls votes to give their lower preferences to EM if he is to win.