BBC News Betfair Politics The main Labour leadership story today has been on the amounts of money raised – and although there are big donations for Ed Balls and Andy Burnham it’s David Miliband who continue to out-perform the field on this measure by quite a distance. From the mainstream bookmakers Bet365 still has the best EdM price at 21/10. But the money continues to pile on DaveM and the best you can get is 2/5 from Ladbrokes. It’s hard…
Guardian How can there now be a full-blooded Tory campaign? A big political story in the papers this morning is the coverage of the joint political press conference by Tory chair, Baroness Warsi and the LD cabinet minister, Chris Huhne. This was a joint move to attack Labour to try put the blame on what the coalition is having to do on the former government. For me the greater significance of this is not what they said but what it…
Is the next fortnight crucial? In the thread on the Labour leadership last Thursday our Tyneside Labour expert, Henry G Manson, suggested that the unions who had backed Ed Miliband were a tad reluctant about putting their campaigning resources behind the man that they have endorsed. For punters that could be a crucial piece of information. For if we are to believe the only poll of actual voters in this election this showed DavidM well ahead in both the membership…
New Leader Pre-election ICM Post-election ICM Uplift John Smith 1992 35 39.33 4.33 Tony Blair 1994 44.66 47.66 3 William Hague 1997 31.4 (GE result) 25 -6.4 Iain Duncan Smith 2001 29.66 29 -0.66 Michael Howard 2003 32.66 33.33 0.66 David Cameron 2005 37.33 39.33 2 Gordon Brown 2007 31 39 8 Mili-E/Mili-D 2010 ?? ?? ? What’ll be the scale of the new leader bounce? If the next election is fought on the current boundaries then the uniform swing…
Politicalbetting – August 2007 For a period back in 2007 the standard format for reporting polls on PB was to produce a series of smiling faces of the leader whose party was ahead – the number being determined by the size of the lead. In the run up to Mr. Brown becoming PM on June 27th 2007 the number of “happy Daves” began to decline and not to soon after the change-over they were replaced by “Happy Gordons”. This reached…
Could he be back in his old job by the autumn? One betting market that could soon be coming to fruition is the one on whether ex-LD Treasury Secretary, David Laws, will return to the cabinet before the end of the year. He had to stand down, of course, following allegations about his expense claims for housing costs. This has been prompted by newspaper reports that he’s now part of a group of key Clegg advisers and efforts are being…
Pollster/publication Date CON LAB LD ComRes/Independent 08/08/10 39 33 16 YouGov/Sun Times 06/08/10 42 36 13 YouGov/Sun 02/07/10 42 38 12 MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 ICM/Guardian 25/07/10 38 34 19 YouGov/Sun 21/07/10 44 35 13 ComRes/Independent 27/06/10 40 31 18 YouGov/Sunday Times 25/06/10 43 36 16 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 24/06/10 41 35 16 YouGov/Sun 24/06/10 43 34 17 Populus/Times 23/06/10 39 33 18 YouGov/Sun 23/06/10 42 34 17 Only the third non-YouGov poll in six weeks The online pollster, YouGov,…
1) Lipstick on a pig: a hard-line Conservative government with some Lib Dem detox; 2) An exceptional response to exceptional times, where getting the economy back on track is the sole priority of two right-thinking parties; 3) A true fusion of Lib Dem and Conservative aims to produce something that is better than the sum of the parts; or 4) A left-wing Conservative conspiracy with the Lib Dems against the right wing of the Conservatives? Thanks to antifrank on the…