Is the next fortnight crucial?
In the thread on the Labour leadership last Thursday our Tyneside Labour expert, Henry G Manson, suggested that the unions who had backed Ed Miliband were a tad reluctant about putting their campaigning resources behind the man that they have endorsed.
For punters that could be a crucial piece of information. For if we are to believe the only poll of actual voters in this election this showed DavidM well ahead in both the membership and union sections – and it is the latter, it is believed, where active campaigning might make the most difference.
Certainly the experience of polling this group from the 2007 deputy contest suggests that the unions have the ability to influence the outcome.
Henry’s comment has prompted a response from the Ed Miliband campaign to me to say that the “union phone banks only kicked into gear” and that the first big UNITE mailing starts going out this week.
The message to me concluded: “….if it doesn’t feel materially different in 2 weeks time, we are in trouble but we think it will”
So maybe it’s not as bad for EdM as was being suggested.
|Candidate||Best bookie price||Betfair Back â€“ Lay|
|David Miliband||2/5||1.44 â€“ 1.46|
|Ed Miliband||21/10||3.35 â€“ 3.45|
|Ed Balls||66/1||120 â€“ 180|
|Andy Burnham||80/1||120 â€“ 190|
|Diane Abbott||150/1||150 â€“ 170|
The best non-DavidM prices seem to be from Bet365.