politicalbetting.com – Page 1770 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Should Labour expel Hutton for his public sector pensions study?

10/3/2011 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

How far should ex-ministers go in helping the coalition? With the big domestic political story being the publication of the public sector pensions review there are calls by left of centre bloggers that the man who carried out the study, ex-cabinet minster John Hutton, to be expelled from the Labour party. On the Liberal Conspiracy site Owen Jones links Hutton’s cooperation to that of his fellow ex-minster Alan Milburn:- “..both Hutton and Milburn were appointed not for their expertise, but…

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Could Labour be heading for an overall majority in Wales?

10/3/2011 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Welsh Assembly election poll (YouGov/ITV) Result 2007 Jan 2011 Mar 2011 Constituency vote Labour 32% 45% 48% Conservative 22% 21% 20% Plaid Cymru 22% 21% 19% Liberal Democrat 15% 7% 7% Others 8% 6% 7% Regional vote Labour 30% 41% 45% Conservative 22% 20% 20% Plaid Cymru 21% 21% 18% Liberal Democrat 12% 8% 5% UKIP 4% 4% 5% Green 4% 2% 4% Others 8% 4% 2% There’s a new YouGov poll out for…

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AV referendum betting: The money moves to NO

10/3/2011 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

AV betting – March 10 2011 Latest prices YES price NO price Ladbrokes evens 8/11 William Hill 5/6 5/6 Bet365 evens 8/11 PaddyPower 4/5 10/11 Victor Chandler evens 8/11 Betfair 11/10 4/5 Smarkets 11/10 0.83/1 YouGov’s 17% lead sparks off a mini-spurt Tuesday’s poll from YouGov showing a 17 point lead for NO has caused the first real shift in AV referendum betting since the markets were set up. Until then the traditional bookies had both sides at about 5/6…

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Are elected mayors becoming more important than MPs?

9/3/2011 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

BBC news Will these be the big English battles on May 5th One development that hasn’t been given much attention is the decision by Sir Peter Soulsby to resign his seat of Leicester South following his selection as Labour candidate in May’s first election for the Mayor of Leicester. What focus there has been on this has been on the parliamentary by-election – but isn’t his decision to abandon Westminster more interesting? For these elected mayor positions, which only exist…

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Why wasn’t Cameron slaughtered this week?

9/3/2011 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Doesn’t EdM need to plan better? On the face of it this should have been an easy PMQs for Ed Miliband. The government’s performance over the past week or so has been far from opitimal and there was plenty of material to play with over the Libya issues and the role of William Hague. Yet somehow EdM’s attacks failed to stick and it was Cameron who came on top. Anticipating the vulnerability of Hague the PM had a well prepared…

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Will Hague’s position be Ed Miliband’s target at PMQs?

9/3/2011 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Has the foreign secretary lost his appetite for the job? If body language and his general demeanour in public are anything to go by then William Hague looks like a man who has had enough and would like nothing more than to disappear from a high profile political role. When pressed on his commitment at a press conference yesterday his response seemed to raise more questions than it answered. He looks nothing like the super confident William Hague of old…

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YouGov finds only 8 percent saying they WON’T vote on AV

8/3/2011 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Why don’t the pollsters focus on those most likely to vote? There’s yet another YouGov AV poll out with its 141 word-long question that has been totally over-taken by events and starts “The Conservative-Liberal Democrat government are committed to holding a referendum…”. It finishes “If a referendum were held tomorrow on whether to stick with first-past-the-post or switch to the Alternative Vote for electing MPs, how would you vote?” Hasn’t the online firm woken up to the fact that the…

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Does the calendar give YES a slight edge?

8/3/2011 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The build-up to polling day Status Thursday 21 April 2011 Normal working day Friday 22 April 2011 Good Friday: Long holiday weekend Saturday 23 April 2011 Long holiday weekend Sunday 24 April 2011 East Sunday: Long holiday weekend Monday 25 April 2011 East Monday: Long holiday weekend Tuesday 26 April 2011 Normal working day: Wedding week Wednesday 27 April 2011 Normal working day: Wedding week Thursday 28 April 2011 Normal working day: Wedding week Friday 29 April 2011 Royal Wedding:…

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