Could Labour be heading for an overall majority in Wales?

Could Labour be heading for an overall majority in Wales?

Welsh Assembly election poll (YouGov/ITV) Result 2007 Jan 2011 Mar 2011
Constituency vote      
Labour 32% 45% 48%
Conservative 22% 21% 20%
Plaid Cymru 22% 21% 19%
Liberal Democrat 15% 7% 7%
Others 8% 6% 7%
Regional vote      
Labour 30% 41% 45%
Conservative 22% 20% 20%
Plaid Cymru 21% 21% 18%
Liberal Democrat 12% 8% 5%
UKIP 4% 4% 5%
Green 4% 2% 4%
Others 8% 4% 2%

There’s a new YouGov poll out for ITV Wales showing the latest opinion ahead of the May elections for the Welsh Assembly. All the polling took place after last week’s referendum result on extending the powers of the Assembly.

As can be seen there been a continued move to Labour and now the red team must wonder whether an overall majority is within their grasp.

It’s hard looking at the numbers to extrapolate this in terms of seat but with 48% of the constituency vote and 45% of the regional vote this must be possible.

Also notable but not unexpected is the decline of the Lib Dems who now have the same share in the regional vote as UKIP.

The only betting I can find is on which party will secure most seats where Betfair make it 1/100. Surely now is the time for an overall majority market?

Mike Smithson

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