Could Labour be heading for an overall majority in Wales?
| Welsh Assembly election poll (YouGov/ITV) | Result 2007 | Jan 2011 | Mar 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constituency vote | |||
| Labour | 32% | 45% | 48% |
| Conservative | 22% | 21% | 20% |
| Plaid Cymru | 22% | 21% | 19% |
| Liberal Democrat | 15% | 7% | 7% |
| Others | 8% | 6% | 7% |
| Regional vote | |||
| Labour | 30% | 41% | 45% |
| Conservative | 22% | 20% | 20% |
| Plaid Cymru | 21% | 21% | 18% |
| Liberal Democrat | 12% | 8% | 5% |
| UKIP | 4% | 4% | 5% |
| Green | 4% | 2% | 4% |
| Others | 8% | 4% | 2% |
There’s a new YouGov poll out for ITV Wales showing the latest opinion ahead of the May elections for the Welsh Assembly. All the polling took place after last week’s referendum result on extending the powers of the Assembly.
As can be seen there been a continued move to Labour and now the red team must wonder whether an overall majority is within their grasp.
It’s hard looking at the numbers to extrapolate this in terms of seat but with 48% of the constituency vote and 45% of the regional vote this must be possible.
Also notable but not unexpected is the decline of the Lib Dems who now have the same share in the regional vote as UKIP.
The only betting I can find is on which party will secure most seats where Betfair make it 1/100. Surely now is the time for an overall majority market?