AV referendum betting: The money moves to NO

AV referendum betting: The money moves to NO

AV betting – March 10 2011 Latest prices YES price NO price
Ladbrokes evens 8/11
William Hill 5/6 5/6
Bet365 evens 8/11
PaddyPower 4/5 10/11
Victor Chandler evens 8/11
Betfair 11/10 4/5
Smarkets 11/10 0.83/1

YouGov’s 17% lead sparks off a mini-spurt

Tuesday’s poll from YouGov showing a 17 point lead for NO has caused the first real shift in AV referendum betting since the markets were set up. Until then the traditional bookies had both sides at about 5/6 while the exchanges were trading at about evens for each.

As we get closer to May 5th prices will move with each new survey and my guess is that it will be like the general election where ICM and YouGov had the most influence on punters.

Certainly the trends in the past fortnight have suggested a move to NO although the only poll that has that side in the lead has been YouGov’s using it’s long question. When the online pollster, which is working for NO2AV as well as News International, has stuck to the precise wording on the ballot it recorded a 3 point YES lead.

I’m not expecting a new ICM AV poll for about a fortnight but I would think that that will be highly influential. Only ICM, which carried out surveys for YES before Christmas, and MORI are weighting their findings by “certainty to vote” and they’ve produced quite different pictures.

My current betting strategy is to go with whichever option is trading at longer than evens.

Mike Smithson

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