Would YES be heading for victory if it was a solus election?

Would YES be heading for victory if it was a solus election?

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Was it a mistake to push for the vote on May 5th? A big debate while the legislation was going through parliament was whether it was right to hold the referendum on the same day as other elections. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have their devolved general elections alongside the referendum on May 5th while in England there are local and mayoral elections in many areas but not all. As part of their poll ICM sought to distinguish between the…

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Will a NO vote provide the victory Dave was denied last May?

Will a NO vote provide the victory Dave was denied last May?

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Now will blue critics stop sniping at him? If the AV referendum does end up with an outcome close to last night’s ICM’s 58-42 to NO it will be a massive victory for David Cameron and an overwhelming vindication of his strategy of creating the coalition so he could take power last May. Ever since that event on May 11th 2010 the Tory right has been muttering against him and increasingly they’ve tried to dub him “an election loser” with…

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NO campaign moves into commanding lead

NO campaign moves into commanding lead

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Have ICM cracked the turnout question? Julian Glover has just tweeted that the new ICM/Guardian poll has (unadjusted) No 44%, Yes 33%, DK 23%, giving an (adjusted) lead of NO 58% vs YES 42%. This is a massive shift in the polling numbers from the pollster that many (including OGH Mike Smithson) regard as a gold-standard pollster. The Guardian write-up can be found here: key features are that the December ICM/Guardian poll had YES 6-points ahead, before NO drew level…

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Will ICM provide the best pointer yet to the referendum?

Will ICM provide the best pointer yet to the referendum?

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But will it favour YES or NO? The Guardian’s polling specialist, Julian Glover, has posted two intriguing tweets on tonight’s ICM poll for his paper which, extraordinarily will be the first non-online survey for two months on the referendum. It’s clear from the Glover Tweets that the ICM poll is going to be news though I can’t even guess which side will be benefiting. The poll will also be the first to incorporate Northern Ireland voters in its sample –…

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How AV can be stopped even if it’s a YES

How AV can be stopped even if it’s a YES

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Nick Palmer looks at the final option A former constituent recently contacted the Electoral Commission to ask about the interaction between boundary changes and the referendum, and had this provocative reply: “The review of boundaries and the referendum are linked as they were in the same Bill voted by Parliament. If there is a yes vote in the referendum then the legislation provides for AV to be introduced. However, under the same legislation, this cannot happen until Parliament has approved…

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Jonathan with his “Idle re-shuffle speculation”

Jonathan with his “Idle re-shuffle speculation”

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Who’s going to get moved and when? Next month we’re likely to have the Coalition’s first reshuffle. Whatever happens, the Coalition will break new ground. David Cameron will have to walk a tightrope between the two parties. Can he refresh his tired team and maintain the Coalition’s equilibrium. Here are six candidates who might move: Cable, Hague, Clegg, Laws, Spelman and Lansley. All have had an “interesting” year. How many could be in a new job by the recess? How…

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YouGov AV tracker has the NO lead down to just 1pc

YouGov AV tracker has the NO lead down to just 1pc

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Are YES voters more likely to turn out? With just two and a half weeks to go before the series of elections on May 5th there are polls galore at the moment. YouGov’s latest AV tracker, for the Sunday Times, is out and sees a sharp reversal on what the online pollster found on Tuesday in the immediate aftermath of NO’s first election broadcast. On the face of it the YouGov finding is very different from what ComRes reported last…

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Is Labour losing the battle for Scotland?

Is Labour losing the battle for Scotland?

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Time to be getting your money on – methinks The first YouGov poll in April on the May 5th devolved general election in Scotland is out and shows a continuation in the trend away from Labour and to the SNP. CONSTITUENCY VOTE SNP: 40% (n/c) Lab: 37% (-2) Con: 11% (n/c) Lib Dem: 8% (+3) Other: 4% The big move, and that featured in the chart, has been in the regional vote where the SNP is up three and Labour…

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