Is this a pointer to the locals? As a follow-up to last night’s thread about the English local elections I thought it’d be useful to extract the England only data from this week’s Ipsos-MORI poll. The firm is the only which which shows such a breakdown. The totals are above for “certains to vote” are – CON 43(+1): LAB 41(nc): LD 10(+1) with CON 39(+1): LAB 41(-1): LD 13(+2) amongst all those expressing a preference. The changes are on the…
Is this the most important of the 4 battle-grounds? There are four distinct contests on May 5th but only one which will provide real pointers as to the scale of the Labour recovery – the English local elections. A good result in Wales looks like a banker but the Ed Miliband-backed YES2AV campaign looks doomed and the latest polling suggest that the red team’s hopes of coming out top in Scotland might have been thwarted. It was in England on…
Salmond’s party becomes favourite after new MORI poll There’s been a lot of betting activity overnight with the publication of a new Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll that suggests that the SNP is heading for a big victory in the devolved parliament elections on May 5th. In both parts of the survey – the constituency and the list – Ipsos-MORI found that the SNP have soared ahead opening up ten and eleven point gaps on Labour. As can be seen from the…
Why would Vince give up his cabinet job? Channel 4 news is making a splash tonight over comments made on a train by Ed Miliband in which the Labour leader appealed to Cable and other LDs to join Labour. The fact that this appeal has been made publicly means that there’s nothing in it. Genuine defections come about after secret talks and the first thing you hear is that the move has been made. In any case what’s in it…
Is this how YES could motivate Labour voters? This is just my bit of fun – but with time running out for the YES I was wondering what I would do if I was running the campaign. Is it possible to reverse the sharp trend to rejecting any change? Isn’t this the moment take a different approach? Given that we know that “Dress-down Dave” is sensitive about his background as a Toff why not remind voters that the privileged classes…
The Ipsos-MORI Monitor for April is just out and has the Tories on 40% – three up on the general election last May and at their highest level with the pollster since then. The blues are now level-legging with Labour and this is the first poll from the firm since October with Labour not in the lead. As can be seen from the chart the firm has the yellows continuing to decline amongst those “certain to vote”. MORI headline figures…
One of YouGov’s fortnightly trackers is to ask about voters’ perceptions of the three main parties including a question on leaders. Panellists are asked “Which party do you think it applies to most – the Conservatives, Labour or the Liberal Democrats? – “Is led by people of real ability”. You would expect those sampled to choose the leader of the party that they say they’ll vote for and that certainly happens with the Tories with 70% choosing Cameron. I’d never…
There’s the latest YouGov AV tracker out for the Sun which shows a sharp move to NO compared with the internet firm’s last survey on the subject just three days ago. Then it had a one point NO lead – this evening the gap is 16 points. The margins is exactly the same as we saw in last night telephone poll from ICM for the Guardian. The next big AV poll should be a phone survey from Ipsos-MORI. That’ll be…